Made on
Aug 27, 2026
Price at call
$43.22
6-month call
Bull +16.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$50.50
Great value below
$40.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+16.8% to $50.50
Predicted High
$50.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$42.80
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 27, 2026 1:06 pm
Bull
BKE trends higher to
$50.50
(+16.8% from $43.22)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisBKE trades meaningfully below composite fair value ($56.97) with quality earnings consistency (4/4 beats) but faces sentiment headwinds and a disfavored apparel narrative. Expect a slow drift higher toward value as low beta muffles regime effects, with modest early hesitation before gradual convergence.
Invalidated ifBreak below $40 support or a missed earnings print would invalidate upward drift; sustained move above $52 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $43.22 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 27, 2026 | — | $43.22 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 10, 2026 | $40.12–$46.32 typical range · internal point $42.80 | — | ±7.2% | 6/10 | Low beta, no catalyst, mild drift near current |
| What actually happened: closed $40.77 on Sep 9, 2026 = -5.7% vs the call (predicted -1.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 4.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.2%: inside the band · S&P -1.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 27, 2026 | $38.73–$47.71 typical range · internal point $43.10 | — | ±10.4% | 6/10 | Sentiment drag offsets risk-on tape |
| What actually happened: closed $42.27 on Sep 25, 2026 = -2.2% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.9 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±10.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $44.50 | — | +3.0% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings anticipation, beat streak supports bid |
| 3 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $46.80 | — | +8.3% | 5/10 | Earnings beat likely, value gap narrows |
| 4 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $48.00 | — | +11.1% | 4/10 | Holiday retail read, dividend expectations |
| 5 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $49.20 | — | +13.8% | 4/10 | Value convergence toward fair value anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 27, 2027 | $50.50 | — | +16.8% | 4/10 | Grinds toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $50.33 (+16.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $43.22 |
| Composite fair value | $56.97 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $55.70 |
| DCF fair value | $59.61 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $65.18 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $40.00 |
| Value net score | +34 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +49 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 28.6% 3m 36.0% 6m 32.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.50 3m 0.08 5m 0.47 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -17.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 23d behind | BKE-20260803-164946-3ed1 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKE-20260826-153802-28e3 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKE-20260826-153802-28e3 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKE-20260826-153802-28e3 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKE-20260826-153802-28e3 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | BKE-20260803-164946-3ed1 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | BKE-20260822-141246-c730 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
6 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $43.17 | $49.75 | +15.2% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $42.96 | $49.50 | +15.2% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $43.22 | $50.50 | +16.8% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $43.75 | $52.25 | +19.4% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $43.19 | $48.80 | +13.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $46.10 | $52.50 | +13.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.