Made on
Aug 27, 2026
Price at call
$52.74
6-month call
Bull +21.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$63.80
Great value below
$46.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+21.0% to $63.80
Predicted High
$63.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$52.20
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 27, 2026 1:11 pm
Bull
FISV trends higher to
$63.80
(+21.0% from $52.74)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisBeaten-down Fiserv trades well below composite fair value with strong earnings history, but broken narrative and negative sentiment cap near-term upside. Expect choppy basing near current levels, then gradual mean-reversion toward the mid-60s as value gravity outweighs fading sentiment damage.
Invalidated ifA break below $46 support or a fresh guidance cut/forensic red flag; conversely, a sharp reclaim of $60 within weeks invalidates the slow-grind thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $52.74 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 27, 2026 | — | $52.74 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 10, 2026 | $48.01–$57.47 typical range · internal point $52.20 | — | ±9.0% | 6/10 | Sentiment overhang keeps price pinned near current levels |
| What actually happened: closed $48.65 on Sep 9, 2026 = -7.8% vs the call (predicted -1.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 6.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.0%: inside the band · S&P -1.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 27, 2026 | $45.88–$59.60 typical range · internal point $53.10 | — | ±13.0% | 5/10 | Risk-on tape provides mild lift, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $46.48 on Sep 25, 2026 = -11.9% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 12.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±13.0%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $54.80 | — | +3.9% | 5/10 | Base builds as sellers exhaust, value buyers nibble |
| 3 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $57.50 | — | +9.0% | 4/10 | Q3 print approaches, beat history supports recovery |
| 4 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $60.20 | — | +14.1% | 4/10 | Post-earnings re-rating toward fair value begins |
| 5 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $62.50 | — | +18.5% | 3/10 | Value convergence continues, narrative slowly heals |
| 6 months | Feb 27, 2027 | $63.80 | — | +21.0% | 3/10 | Grinds toward composite fair value anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $64.26 (+21.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
[critical] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $52.74 |
| Composite fair value | $70.13 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $68.62 |
| DCF fair value | $89.04 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $46.00 |
| Value net score | +12 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +43 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 38.7% 3m 45.1% 6m 40.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.95 3m -0.14 5m 0.00 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -14.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | 24d behind | FISV-20260802-132328-2218 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-FISV-20260826-154301-e7f1 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-FISV-20260826-154301-e7f1 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-FISV-20260826-154301-e7f1 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-FISV-20260826-154301-e7f1 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | FISV-20260821-120721-b745 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | FISV-20260821-120721-b745 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.