Made on
Aug 17, 2026
Price at call
$121.45
6-month call
Bear -6.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$114.00
Great value below
$100.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.1% to $114.00
Predicted High
$120.80
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$113.20
at 5 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 17, 2026 12:50 am
Bear
AFL trends lower to
$114.00
(-6.1% from $121.45)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisAFL trades above composite fair value near $101 while sentiment is negative and the risk-on tape ignores this low-beta defensive; expect gradual drift lower toward value with a mild rebound as it approaches the $110 zone where buyers historically step in.
Invalidated ifA close above $128 on positive catalyst or dividend hike news, or a break below $105 accelerating downside
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $121.45 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 17, 2026 | — | $121.45 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 31, 2026 | $117.11–$125.79 typical range · internal point $120.80 | — | ±3.6% | 6/10 | Low-beta drift, risk-on tape ignores defensive name |
| 1 month | Sep 17, 2026 | $115.16–$127.74 typical range · internal point $119.50 | — | ±5.2% | 6/10 | Sentiment weakness pressures shares mildly lower |
| 2 months | Oct 17, 2026 | $117.80 | — | -3.0% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 3 months | Nov 17, 2026 | $116.00 | — | -4.5% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk, fading compounder narrative weighs |
| 4 months | Dec 17, 2026 | $114.50 | — | -5.7% | 4/10 | Continued drift as overvaluation compresses |
| 5 months | Jan 17, 2027 | $113.20 | — | -6.8% | 4/10 | Approaching support, buyers begin defending |
| 6 months | Feb 17, 2027 | $114.00 | — | -6.1% | 3/10 | Stabilization near $113-115 support zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $118.37 (-2.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 3 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Degraded
[critical] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
liquidity
-
Note
dilution
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $121.45 |
| Composite fair value | $101.10 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $98.17 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $101.10 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $100.00 |
| Value net score | -59 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +21 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 16.3% 3m 17.9% 6m 16.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.41 3m -0.63 5m -0.21 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 4.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 12, 2026 | 5d behind | AFL-20260812-001202-beb3 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AFL-20260817-003925-1386 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AFL-20260817-003925-1386 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AFL-20260817-003925-1386 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AFL-20260817-003925-1386 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | AFL-20260817-002017-b844 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $121.45 | $114.00 | -6.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 18, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $124.72 | $120.92 | -3.0% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.