Made on
Aug 25, 2026
Price at call
$73.23
6-month call
Bear -9.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$66.20
Great value below
$58.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.6% to $66.20
Predicted High
$72.60
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$66.20
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 25, 2026 1:14 pm
Bear
ALC trends lower to
$66.20
(-9.6% from $73.23)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisALC trades well above composite fair value ($51-57) with a negative sentiment lens as a marquee holder exits on cataract demand concerns. Low beta and no near-term catalyst mean gradual drift lower toward the anchored-PE zone, not a crash. Value gravity dominates over months while low volatility caps the pace.
Invalidated ifA bullish cataract-volume data point or upgrade cycle lifting ALC back above $76 would invalidate the drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $73.23 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 25, 2026 | — | $73.23 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 8, 2026 | $69.21–$77.25 typical range · internal point $72.60 | — | ±5.5% | 6/10 | Sentiment overhang persists, low-vol drift lower |
| What actually happened: closed $70.50 on Sep 4, 2026 = -3.7% vs the call (predicted -0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.9 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.5%: inside the band · S&P +0.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 25, 2026 | $67.40–$79.06 typical range · internal point $71.80 | — | ±8.0% | 6/10 | Fund exit narrative lingers, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $64.56 on Sep 24, 2026 = -11.8% vs the call (predicted -2.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 9.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.4% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $70.90 | — | -3.2% | 5/10 | Value gravity toward anchored-PE $70 |
| 3 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $69.50 | — | -5.1% | 5/10 | Earnings window; cataract demand scrutiny |
| 4 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $68.20 | — | -6.9% | 4/10 | Continued mean reversion toward fair value band |
| 5 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $67.00 | — | -8.5% | 4/10 | Composite FV pull, quality floor limits downside |
| 6 months | Feb 25, 2027 | $66.20 | — | -9.6% | 3/10 | Settles between anchored-PE and signal-adjusted FV |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $70.22 (-4.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $73.23 |
| Composite fair value | $51.16 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $57.15 |
| DCF fair value | $52.43 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $70.39 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $58.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +55 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 25.7% 3m 27.6% 6m 32.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.38 3m 0.11 5m 0.22 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -11.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ALC-20260825-053001-bcbd |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ALC-20260825-063823-fd37 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ALC-20260825-063823-fd37 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ALC-20260825-063823-fd37 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ALC-20260825-063823-fd37 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ALC-20260825-053001-bcbd |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ALC-20260825-053001-bcbd |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $73.23 | $66.20 | -9.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.