Made on
Aug 17, 2026
Price at call
$569.54
6-month call
Bull +19.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$680.00
Great value below
$560.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+19.4% to $680.00
Predicted High
$680.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$578.00
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 17, 2026 12:50 am
Bull
AMP trends higher to
$680.00
(+19.4% from $569.54)
by Feb 2027.
straight
ThesisAMP trades well below composite fair value with a risk-on tape, active Strong Buy signals, completed buyback and a 5/5 EPS beat streak. Value gravity plus benign sentiment should lift shares gradually toward the anchored-PE range, though the low beta and lack of near-term catalyst argue for a steady grind rather than a spike.
Invalidated ifRegime flip to risk-off, break below $540 support, or a downside EPS pre-announcement would falsify the upward drift.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $569.54 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 17, 2026 | — | $569.54 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 31, 2026 | $543.15–$595.93 typical range · internal point $578.00 | — | ±4.6% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and Strong Buy tag extend momentum |
| 1 month | Sep 17, 2026 | $531.29–$607.79 typical range · internal point $588.00 | — | ±6.7% | 6/10 | Post-buyback float support, no catalyst friction |
| 2 months | Oct 17, 2026 | $605.00 | — | +6.2% | 5/10 | Value buyers accumulate below fair-value anchors |
| 3 months | Nov 17, 2026 | $625.00 | — | +9.7% | 5/10 | Q3 print likely extends beat streak |
| 4 months | Dec 17, 2026 | $640.00 | — | +12.4% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning into quality compounders |
| 5 months | Jan 17, 2027 | $660.00 | — | +15.9% | 4/10 | January reallocation toward undervalued financials |
| 6 months | Feb 17, 2027 | $680.00 | — | +19.4% | 3/10 | Gradual convergence toward anchored-PE fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $779.34 (+36.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 3 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
liquidity
-
Note
dilution
-
Note
earningsQuality
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $569.54 |
| Composite fair value | $987.19 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $1,267.06 |
| DCF fair value | $1,091.11 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $779.36 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $560.00 |
| Value net score | +10 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +58 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 15.3% 3m 23.3% 6m 24.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.42 3m 0.25 5m 0.49 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 21.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | AMP-20260817-002057-e2b8 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMP-20260817-004002-f37a |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMP-20260817-004002-f37a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMP-20260817-004002-f37a |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMP-20260817-004002-f37a |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | AMP-20260817-002057-e2b8 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | AMP-20260817-002057-e2b8 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $569.54 | $680.00 | +19.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $528.37 | $505.00 | -4.4% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.