Made on
Jul 27, 2026
Price at call
$126.51
6-month call
Bear -17.8%
Target by Jan 2027
$104.00
Great value below
$85.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-17.8% to $104.00
Predicted High
$125.80
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$104.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-17.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 27, 2026 12:57 am
Bear
ARES trends lower to
$104.00
(-17.8% from $126.51)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisARES trades well above composite fair value ($75.64) with negative value and quality scores, and a jittery high-beta tape after -21.7% trailing return. Absent a near-term catalyst, mean reversion toward the anchored PE ($85.50) should dominate over months, though sentiment and platform narrative cushion the near term.
Invalidated ifA breakout above $140 on strong volume or a blowout earnings beat with raised guidance would invalidate the drift-lower path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $126.51 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 27, 2026 | — | $126.51 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 10, 2026 | $116.38–$136.64 typical range · internal point $125.80 | — | ±8.0% | 6/10 | High-beta chop near current level, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $136.85 on Aug 7, 2026 = +8.2% vs the call (predicted -0.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 8.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 27, 2026 | $111.82–$141.20 typical range · internal point $123.00 | — | ±11.6% | 5/10 | Neutral regime, slow drift as narrative cools |
| 2 months | Sep 27, 2026 | $119.50 | — | -5.5% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins asserting, analyst caution |
| 3 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $115.00 | — | -9.1% | 5/10 | Earnings window risk, quality drag weighs |
| 4 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $111.00 | — | -12.3% | 4/10 | Continued reversion toward anchored PE zone |
| 5 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $108.00 | — | -14.6% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, tax-loss pressure possible |
| 6 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $104.00 | — | -17.8% | 4/10 | Path converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $106.51 (-15.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 3 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Degraded
Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $126.51 |
| Composite fair value | $75.64 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $68.53 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $85.50 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $85.00 |
| Value net score | -83 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -22 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 36.7% 3m 40.2% 6m 51.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.94 3m 1.71 5m 1.49 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -21.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ARES-20260727-000446-ff8f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-ARES-20260727-004658-5daf |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-ARES-20260727-004658-5daf |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-ARES-20260727-004658-5daf |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-ARES-20260727-004658-5daf |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ARES-20260727-000446-ff8f |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ARES-20260727-000446-ff8f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $126.51 | $104.00 | -17.8% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.