Made on
Jul 28, 2026
Price at call
$525.48
6-month call
Bear -9.6%
Target by Jan 2027
$475.00
Great value below
$400.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.6% to $475.00
Predicted High
$535.00
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$475.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 28, 2026 12:39 am
Bear
AXON trends lower to
$475.00
(-9.6% from $525.48)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisAxon trades at a rich premium with deeply negative value/quality scores and no valuation floor visible, but the platform-monopoly narrative and consistent earnings beats keep near-term downside contained. Risk-off regime and 14% 6-month drawdown suggest continued pressure, with modest mean-reversion attempts that fade as valuation gravity reasserts over the 6-month window.
Invalidated ifA decisive breakout above $575 on strong volume, or a blowout earnings beat with raised guidance, would invalidate the drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $525.48 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 28, 2026 | — | $525.48 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 11, 2026 | $459.57–$591.39 typical range · internal point $520.00 | — | ±12.5% | 6/10 | Risk-off regime pressures high-beta narrative names near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $596.33 on Aug 10, 2026 = +13.5% vs the call (predicted -1.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 14.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±12.5%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 28, 2026 | $429.97–$620.99 typical range · internal point $512.00 | — | ±18.2% | 5/10 | Continued drift lower absent catalyst, valuation overhang |
| What actually happened: closed $611.20 on Aug 27, 2026 = +16.3% vs the call (predicted -2.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 18.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±18.2%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 28, 2026 | $535.00 | — | +1.8% | 4/10 | Q3 earnings beat likely, narrative reasserts briefly |
| 3 months | Oct 28, 2026 | $518.00 | — | -1.4% | 4/10 | Post-earnings fade as premium multiple questioned |
| 4 months | Nov 28, 2026 | $495.00 | — | -5.8% | 4/10 | Value lens gravity pulls toward attractive-below-400 zone |
| 5 months | Dec 28, 2026 | $485.00 | — | -7.7% | 3/10 | Year-end tax-loss selling on underperformers |
| 6 months | Jan 28, 2027 | $475.00 | — | -9.6% | 3/10 | Slow grind toward fair-value discipline, narrative fatigue |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 5 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $525.48 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -87 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -19 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 70.2% 3m 63.0% 6m 67.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.66 3m 0.96 5m 1.22 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -14.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | AXON-20260728-000553-ffa5 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-AXON-20260728-002713-9658 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-AXON-20260728-002713-9658 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-AXON-20260728-002713-9658 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-AXON-20260728-002713-9658 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | AXON-20260728-000553-ffa5 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | AXON-20260728-000553-ffa5 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $525.48 | $475.00 | -9.6% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.