Made on
Aug 17, 2026
Price at call
$3,025.00
6-month call
Bear -5.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$2,860.00
Great value below
$2,400.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.5% to $2,860.00
Predicted High
$3,055.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$2,860.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 17, 2026 12:55 am
Bear
AZO trends lower to
$2,860.00
(-5.5% from $3,025.00)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisAZO trades meaningfully above composite fair value ($2,532) with a value lens net -63 and 6mo trailing return -20%, but a risk-on tape and defensive anti-AI narrative provide near-term support. Expect modest drift lower over months as value gravity reasserts, partially offset by defensive bid and quality profile.
Invalidated ifA break above $3,150 on volume or regime flip to risk-off with AZO holding $3,000+ would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $3,025.00 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 17, 2026 | — | $3,025.00 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 31, 2026 | $2,810.75–$3,239.25 typical range · internal point $3,040.00 | — | ±7.1% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and defensive bid extend recent stability |
| 1 month | Sep 17, 2026 | $2,714.52–$3,335.48 typical range · internal point $3,055.00 | — | ±10.3% | 6/10 | Anti-AI narrative and low beta attract flows |
| 2 months | Oct 17, 2026 | $3,010.00 | — | -0.5% | 5/10 | Momentum chatter fades, valuation concerns resurface |
| 3 months | Nov 17, 2026 | $2,955.00 | — | -2.3% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward anchored-PE fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 17, 2026 | $2,910.00 | — | -3.8% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims extended defensive names |
| 5 months | Jan 17, 2027 | $2,880.00 | — | -4.8% | 4/10 | Drift toward composite fair value continues |
| 6 months | Feb 17, 2027 | $2,860.00 | — | -5.5% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deserved value near $2,774 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $2,976.98 (-1.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
liquidity
-
Note
dilution
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $3,025.00 |
| Composite fair value | $2,532.46 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $2,128.40 |
| DCF fair value | $2,483.67 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $2,993.79 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $2,400.00 |
| Value net score | -63 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +53 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.6% 3m 35.6% 6m 33.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.41 3m -0.40 5m 0.21 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -20.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | AZO-20260817-002217-6e74 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AZO-20260817-004201-21e8 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AZO-20260817-004201-21e8 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AZO-20260817-004201-21e8 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AZO-20260817-004201-21e8 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | AZO-20260817-002217-6e74 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | AZO-20260817-002217-6e74 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $3,025.00 | $2,860.00 | -5.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $3,013.03 | $3,200.00 | +6.2% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.