Made on
Aug 14, 2026
Price at call
$162.93
6-month call
Bear -7.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$150.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.6% to $150.50
Predicted High
$166.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$150.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 14, 2026 12:36 am
Bear
BK trends lower to
$150.50
(-7.6% from $162.93)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisBK trades well above every fair-value anchor but momentum, quality, and a risk-on tape keep the bid alive near-term; over 6 months, gravity toward the $150 baseline reasserts as the modernization narrative matures without new catalysts.
Invalidated ifA decisive close above $175 on positive guidance, or below $150 on regime flip to risk-off, would falsify this drift path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $162.93 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 14, 2026 | — | $162.93 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 28, 2026 | $155.72–$170.14 typical range · internal point $164.80 | — | ±4.4% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and momentum extend recent uptrend |
| 1 month | Sep 14, 2026 | $152.48–$173.38 typical range · internal point $166.00 | — | ±6.4% | 6/10 | Narrative strength persists absent earnings catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 14, 2026 | $163.50 | — | +0.3% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, positioning tightens |
| 3 months | Nov 14, 2026 | $159.00 | — | -2.4% | 5/10 | Post-earnings digestion, valuation gravity begins |
| 4 months | Dec 14, 2026 | $155.50 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking on outperformer |
| 5 months | Jan 14, 2027 | $152.00 | — | -6.7% | 4/10 | January rotation away from stretched names |
| 6 months | Feb 14, 2027 | $150.50 | — | -7.6% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $150.21 (-7.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Degraded
[critical] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $162.93 |
| Composite fair value | $95.89 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $92.13 |
| DCF fair value | $65.81 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $156.05 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +65 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 25.1% 3m 22.2% 6m 23.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.87 3m 0.55 5m 0.61 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 28.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | BK-20260814-001104-5f7f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-BK-20260814-002445-f078 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-BK-20260814-002445-f078 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-BK-20260814-002445-f078 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-BK-20260814-002445-f078 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | BK-20260814-001104-5f7f |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | BK-20260814-001104-5f7f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $162.93 | $150.50 | -7.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.