Made on
Aug 17, 2026
Price at call
$62.78
6-month call
Bear -17.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$52.00
Great value below
$48.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-17.2% to $52.00
Predicted High
$63.20
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$52.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-17.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 17, 2026 1:27 am
Bear
CARR trends lower to
$52.00
(-17.2% from $62.78)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCARR trades at a steep premium to fair value anchors, but risk-on tape and narrative momentum keep it buoyant near-term. Value gravity pulls lower over months as the 226% premium compresses, though not fully to deterministic endpoint given quality of platform and beat cadence.
Invalidated ifBreak above $68 on strong volume with regime staying risk-on, or drop below $52 pre-November
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $62.78 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 17, 2026 | — | $62.78 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 31, 2026 | $57.78–$67.78 typical range · internal point $63.20 | — | ±8.0% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape supports near-term drift higher |
| 1 month | Sep 17, 2026 | $55.53–$70.03 typical range · internal point $62.00 | — | ±11.5% | 5/10 | Momentum fades as no catalyst emerges |
| 2 months | Oct 17, 2026 | $59.50 | — | -5.2% | 5/10 | Valuation concerns begin weighing on sentiment |
| 3 months | Nov 17, 2026 | $57.00 | — | -9.2% | 5/10 | Q3 print scrutiny reveals premium stretch |
| 4 months | Dec 17, 2026 | $55.00 | — | -12.4% | 4/10 | Year-end derating on rich multiple |
| 5 months | Jan 17, 2027 | $53.50 | — | -14.8% | 4/10 | January repositioning trims premium names |
| 6 months | Feb 17, 2027 | $52.00 | — | -17.2% | 3/10 | Gradual convergence toward anchored-PE fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $47.25 (-24.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $62.78 |
| Composite fair value | $21.61 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $19.28 |
| DCF fair value | $17.94 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $32.19 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $48.00 |
| Value net score | -66 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -17 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 43.7% 3m 40.0% 6m 42.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.48 3m 1.41 5m 1.38 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -3.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 16, 2026 | 1d behind | CARR-20260816-001149-5381 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-CARR-20260817-012326-244c |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-CARR-20260817-012326-244c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-CARR-20260817-012326-244c |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-CARR-20260817-012326-244c |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | CARR-20260816-001149-5381 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | CARR-20260816-001149-5381 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.