Made on
Aug 27, 2026
Price at call
$70.23
6-month call
Bear -6.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$65.80
Great value below
$58.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.3% to $65.80
Predicted High
$71.20
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$65.20
at 5 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 27, 2026 1:24 pm
Bear
CFG trends lower to
$65.80
(-6.3% from $70.23)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCFG trades above composite fair value ($63.86) with mild risk-on sentiment and momentum supporting the near-term, but value gravity should reassert over months, pulling price toward the mid-60s. An October earnings print (3-for-3 beat streak) provides a modest lift risk before mean reversion resumes.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $74 on strong earnings, or a break below $62 on regime flip, would invalidate the drift-lower path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $70.23 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 27, 2026 | — | $70.23 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 10, 2026 | $66.67–$73.79 typical range · internal point $70.90 | — | ±5.1% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and momentum extend near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $69.37 on Sep 9, 2026 = -1.2% vs the call (predicted +1.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.2 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.1%: inside the band · S&P -1.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 27, 2026 | $65.07–$75.39 typical range · internal point $71.20 | — | ±7.3% | 6/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, beat streak supports bid |
| 2 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $69.80 | — | -0.6% | 4/10 | Earnings print digested, value gravity begins |
| 3 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $67.90 | — | -3.3% | 5/10 | Fade toward composite fair value $63.86 |
| 4 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $66.50 | — | -5.3% | 5/10 | Year-end rebalancing pressures overvalued regionals |
| 5 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $65.20 | — | -7.2% | 4/10 | Continued mean reversion toward anchored PE |
| 6 months | Feb 27, 2027 | $65.80 | — | -6.3% | 4/10 | Stabilization near deserved value baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $69.42 (-1.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $70.23 |
| Composite fair value | $63.86 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $58.50 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $63.86 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $58.00 |
| Value net score | -60 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +14 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 20.0% 3m 25.5% 6m 25.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.86 3m 0.46 5m 0.67 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 11.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | CFG-20260827-043001-4170 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CFG-20260827-063403-e83f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CFG-20260827-063403-e83f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CFG-20260827-063403-e83f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-CFG-20260827-063403-e83f |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | CFG-20260827-043001-4170 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $70.23 | $65.80 | -6.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.