Made on
Aug 26, 2026
Price at call
$42.89
6-month call
Bear -5.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$40.40
Great value below
$36.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.8% to $40.40
Predicted High
$42.75
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$40.40
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 26, 2026 1:18 pm
Bear
CHT trends lower to
$40.40
(-5.8% from $42.89)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisCHT is a low-beta Taiwan telecom utility with a defensive bid in a mildly risk-on tape; no near-term catalyst and stretched valuation anchors argue for slow drift lower, but the low volatility and defensive demand cap downside well above the deterministic fair-value endpoint.
Invalidated ifA close above $45 on rising volume, or a sharp break below $40 on Taiwan macro shock, would invalidate the slow-drift thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $42.89 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 26, 2026 | — | $42.89 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 9, 2026 | $41.46–$44.32 typical range · internal point $42.75 | — | ±3.3% | 7/10 | Low beta, no catalyst, defensive bid holds |
| What actually happened: closed $44.23 on Sep 8, 2026 = +3.1% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.5 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±3.3%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 26, 2026 | $40.81–$44.97 typical range · internal point $42.50 | — | ±4.8% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape slowly pulls capital elsewhere |
| What actually happened: closed $46.15 on Sep 25, 2026 = +7.6% vs the call (predicted -0.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 8.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±4.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $42.10 | — | -1.8% | 6/10 | Mild drift as valuation gravity begins |
| 3 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $41.60 | — | -3.0% | 5/10 | Continued rotation from defensives to growth |
| 4 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $41.20 | — | -3.9% | 5/10 | Year-end tax positioning, muted flows |
| 5 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $40.80 | — | -4.9% | 4/10 | Value anchors weigh, no earnings catalyst |
| 6 months | Feb 26, 2027 | $40.40 | — | -5.8% | 4/10 | Slow convergence toward deterministic endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $35.66 (-16.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $42.89 |
| Composite fair value | $2.93 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $2.55 |
| DCF fair value | $3.57 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $2.55 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $36.00 |
| Value net score | -46 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +68 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 9.1% 3m 16.8% 6m 15.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.40 3m -0.06 5m 0.06 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -1.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | CHT-20260826-053001-14a9 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHT-20260826-055309-0617 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHT-20260826-055309-0617 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHT-20260826-055309-0617 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHT-20260826-055309-0617 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | CHT-20260826-053001-14a9 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | CHT-20260826-053001-14a9 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $42.89 | $40.40 | -5.8% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.