Made on
Sep 2, 2026
Price at call
$283.89
6-month call
Bull +25.0%
Target by Mar 2027
$355.00
Great value below
$255.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+25.0% to $355.00
Predicted High
$355.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$285.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 2, 2026 1:02 pm
Bull
CI trends higher to
$355.00
(+25.0% from $283.89)
by Mar 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisCI trades deeply below composite fair value with quality/value support, but momentum is flat and regime is neutral. Expect a gradual grind higher toward the deterministic baseline as value gravity works, with mild early drift before a firmer move as valuation gap gets recognized.
Invalidated ifBreak below $255 support or forensic/quality deterioration; sustained regime turn risk-off
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $283.89 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 2, 2026 | — | $283.89 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 16, 2026 | $267.65–$300.13 typical range · internal point $285.50 | — | ±5.7% | 6/10 | Neutral regime, low vol, minor drift near current |
| What actually happened: closed $288.90 on Sep 15, 2026 = +1.8% vs the call (predicted +0.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.7%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 2, 2026 | $260.36–$307.42 typical range · internal point $289.00 | — | ±8.3% | 6/10 | Value buyers step in below fair value anchor |
| What actually happened: closed $267.96 on Oct 1, 2026 = -5.6% vs the call (predicted +1.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.3%: inside the band · S&P +0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 2, 2026 | $298.00 | — | +5.0% | 5/10 | Gradual re-rating as valuation gap noticed |
| 3 months | Dec 2, 2026 | $312.00 | — | +9.9% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning favors undervalued defensives |
| 4 months | Jan 2, 2027 | $325.00 | — | +14.5% | 4/10 | January effect and earnings anticipation build |
| 5 months | Feb 2, 2027 | $342.00 | — | +20.5% | 4/10 | Earnings beat pattern supports continued climb |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $355.00 | — | +25.0% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $360.27 (+26.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $283.89 |
| Composite fair value | $485.85 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $493.14 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $705.34 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $255.00 |
| Value net score | +37 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +22 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.5% 3m 28.7% 6m 28.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.22 3m -0.41 5m -0.26 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -0.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 11, 2026 | 21d behind | CI-20260811-141448-0cd0 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-CI-20260902-002344-a673 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-CI-20260902-002344-a673 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-CI-20260902-002344-a673 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-CI-20260902-002344-a673 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | CI-20260902-000001-7ec1 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | CI-20260902-000001-7ec1 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.