Made on
Aug 25, 2026
Price at call
$117.66
6-month call
Bull +10.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$129.75
Great value below
$105.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+10.3% to $129.75
Predicted High
$129.75
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$117.90
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 25, 2026 1:10 pm
Bull
CM trends higher to
$129.75
(+10.3% from $117.66)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisCM sits below composite fair value ($136) with a neutral regime and no near-term catalysts; low beta and mild negative sentiment cap upside early, but value gravity pulls the stock toward the high $120s to low $130s over six months.
Invalidated ifA break below $105 on rising volume or a Canadian bank credit-quality shock would falsify the upward drift.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $117.66 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 25, 2026 | — | $117.66 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 8, 2026 | $112.29–$123.03 typical range · internal point $117.90 | — | ±4.6% | 7/10 | Neutral tape, low beta, minimal near-term movement |
| What actually happened: closed $117.50 on Sep 4, 2026 = -0.1% vs the call (predicted +0.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.6%: inside the band · S&P +0.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 25, 2026 | $109.87–$125.45 typical range · internal point $118.80 | — | ±6.6% | 6/10 | Mild sentiment drag offset by defensive bid |
| What actually happened: closed $111.42 on Sep 24, 2026 = -5.3% vs the call (predicted +1.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 6.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.6%: inside the band · S&P +0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $121.50 | — | +3.3% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 3 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $124.00 | — | +5.4% | 5/10 | Earnings window may lift on beat cadence |
| 4 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $126.50 | — | +7.5% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning favors defensive dividend names |
| 5 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $128.50 | — | +9.2% | 4/10 | Continued convergence toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 25, 2027 | $129.75 | — | +10.3% | 3/10 | Approaches deterministic endpoint near $130 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $128.30 (+9.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $117.66 |
| Composite fair value | $136.48 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $150.26 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $136.48 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $105.00 |
| Value net score | +36 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +45 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 21.9% 3m 22.9% 6m 23.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.84 3m 0.41 5m 0.77 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 15.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 8, 2026 | 17d behind | CM-20260808-000712-4354 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-CM-20260825-014609-97fc |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-CM-20260825-014609-97fc |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-CM-20260825-014609-97fc |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-CM-20260825-014609-97fc |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | CM-20260825-013001-d498 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | CM-20260825-013001-d498 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
5 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $117.66 | $129.75 | +10.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 20, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $116.28 | $130.75 | +12.4% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 14, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $122.40 | $133.50 | +9.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 8, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $118.72 | $130.80 | +10.2% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 7, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $115.36 | $108.26 | -6.2% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.