Made on
Aug 25, 2026
Price at call
$27.23
6-month call
Bull +9.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$29.80
Great value below
$24.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+9.4% to $29.80
Predicted High
$29.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$26.20
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 25, 2026 1:06 pm
Bull
CMCSA trends higher to
$29.80
(+9.4% from $27.23)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCMCSA screens deeply undervalued but is trapped in a fallen-angel narrative with cord-cutting overhang and no near-term earnings catalyst. Expect drift lower into autumn as sentiment dominates, then a modest mean-reversion bounce as the value gap and low beta attract buyers, ending meaningfully above spot but far below the deterministic fair-value endpoint.
Invalidated ifA close below $24 or above $32 within the first 8 weeks, or a strategic action (spin, buyback surge) that resets the narrative.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $27.23 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 25, 2026 | — | $27.23 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 8, 2026 | $25.37–$29.09 typical range · internal point $27.05 | — | ±6.8% | 7/10 | Low-vol drift; sentiment press continues, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $26.49 on Sep 4, 2026 = -2.7% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.1 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±6.8%: inside the band · S&P +0.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 25, 2026 | $24.53–$29.93 typical range · internal point $26.60 | — | ±9.9% | 6/10 | Cord-cutting headlines pressure into late September |
| What actually happened: closed $22.13 on Sep 24, 2026 = -18.7% vs the call (predicted -2.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 16.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.9%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.4% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $26.20 | — | -3.8% | 5/10 | Tests value-lens attractive zone near 24-26 |
| 3 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $27.40 | — | +0.6% | 4/10 | Q3 print beat history supports modest rebound |
| 4 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $28.20 | — | +3.6% | 4/10 | Year-end tax-loss exhaustion, buyback support |
| 5 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $29.10 | — | +6.9% | 3/10 | Value gravity begins asserting on deep discount |
| 6 months | Feb 25, 2027 | $29.80 | — | +9.4% | 3/10 | Partial mean reversion toward composite fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $47.56 (+74.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $27.23 |
| Composite fair value | $77.53 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $83.77 |
| DCF fair value | $86.34 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $24.00 |
| Value net score | +5 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +29 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 31.5% 3m 34.3% 6m 36.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.09 3m 0.25 5m 0.05 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -14.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 25d behind | CMCSA-20260730-175301-54cc |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-CMCSA-20260824-234445-4d6b |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-CMCSA-20260824-234445-4d6b |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-CMCSA-20260824-234445-4d6b |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-CMCSA-20260824-234445-4d6b |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | CMCSA-20260824-233001-22b2 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | CMCSA-20260824-233001-22b2 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
5 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $27.23 | $29.80 | +9.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 20, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $26.28 | $28.40 | +8.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 13, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $25.47 | $28.20 | +10.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $23.96 | $28.00 | +16.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 12, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $23.57 | $47.23 | +100.4% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.