Made on
Jul 28, 2026
Price at call
$33.20
6-month call
Bear -21.1%
Target by Jan 2027
$26.20
Great value below
$22.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-21.1% to $26.20
Predicted High
$32.40
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$26.20
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-21.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 28, 2026 12:38 am
Bear
CMG trends lower to
$26.20
(-21.1% from $33.20)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisCMG trades well above every reasonable value anchor with negative sentiment, a risk-off regime, and no earnings catalyst to defend the multiple. Near-term drift lower accelerates as the story wobbles, with value gravity pulling toward the mid-20s over six months but not fully closing the gap absent a capitulation event.
Invalidated ifA break back above $37 on volume or a surprise positive pre-announcement would falsify the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $33.20 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 28, 2026 | — | $33.20 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 11, 2026 | $30.59–$35.81 typical range · internal point $32.40 | — | ±7.9% | 6/10 | Risk-off tape and weak momentum press stretched multiple lower |
| What actually happened: closed $32.14 on Aug 10, 2026 = -3.2% vs the call (predicted -2.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.9%: inside the band · S&P +4.4% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 28, 2026 | $29.41–$36.99 typical range · internal point $31.60 | — | ±11.4% | 6/10 | No catalyst, sentiment drag continues, drift toward baseline |
| 2 months | Sep 28, 2026 | $30.20 | — | -9.0% | 5/10 | Q3 print anticipation, valuation concerns intensify into fall |
| 3 months | Oct 28, 2026 | $28.80 | — | -13.3% | 5/10 | Earnings likely in window; beat streak vs decelerating narrative |
| 4 months | Nov 28, 2026 | $27.50 | — | -17.2% | 4/10 | Post-print digestion, value gravity dominates as story fades |
| 5 months | Dec 28, 2026 | $26.80 | — | -19.3% | 4/10 | Year-end tax-loss selling on underperformer accelerates decline |
| 6 months | Jan 28, 2027 | $26.20 | — | -21.1% | 4/10 | Convergence toward anchored-PE fair value near mid-20s |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $31.12 (-6.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Degraded
Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $33.20 |
| Composite fair value | $20.51 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $16.76 |
| DCF fair value | $17.79 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $25.95 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $22.00 |
| Value net score | -80 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +73 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 43.9% 3m 39.5% 6m 37.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.20 3m -0.08 5m 0.60 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -18.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | CMG-20260728-000553-7689 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-CMG-20260728-002713-84a3 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-CMG-20260728-002713-84a3 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-CMG-20260728-002713-84a3 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-CMG-20260728-002713-84a3 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | CMG-20260728-000553-7689 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | CMG-20260728-000553-7689 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $33.20 | $26.20 | -21.1% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.