Made on
Aug 10, 2026
Price at call
$45.51
6-month call
Bull +21.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$55.20
Great value below
$40.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+21.3% to $55.20
Predicted High
$55.20
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$46.40
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 10, 2026 12:56 am
Bull
CNQ trends higher to
$55.20
(+21.3% from $45.51)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCNQ carries positive momentum from record Q2, raised guidance, and favorable policy tailwinds in a risk-on regime, with deep value ($93 FV vs $45.51 spot) providing gravity. Expect grind higher near-term on sentiment, then continued rerating toward mid-$50s as value convergence plays out, though full closure to fair value unlikely within 6 months given transition overhang.
Invalidated ifBreak below $40 (attractive-value line and sentiment reversal) or oil price collapse / risk-off regime flip would falsify the drift-up thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $45.51 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 10, 2026 | — | $45.51 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 24, 2026 | $42.53–$48.49 typical range · internal point $46.40 | — | ±6.5% | 7/10 | Momentum and risk-on regime extend recent uptrend |
| 1 month | Sep 10, 2026 | $41.19–$49.83 typical range · internal point $47.60 | — | ±9.5% | 6/10 | Sentiment tailwind from guidance raise persists |
| 2 months | Oct 10, 2026 | $49.20 | — | +8.1% | 5/10 | Q3 print anticipation, value gravity begins pulling |
| 3 months | Nov 10, 2026 | $51.00 | — | +12.1% | 5/10 | Earnings beat likely given 4/4 streak, rerating |
| 4 months | Dec 10, 2026 | $52.50 | — | +15.4% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, dividend appeal in energy |
| 5 months | Jan 10, 2027 | $53.80 | — | +18.2% | 4/10 | Continued convergence toward fair value anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 10, 2027 | $55.20 | — | +21.3% | 3/10 | Partial closure of value gap, transition overhang caps |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $63.70 (+40.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $45.51 |
| Composite fair value | $93.30 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $97.03 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $93.30 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $40.00 |
| Value net score | +0 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +29 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 33.4% 3m 32.9% 6m 34.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.08 3m -0.40 5m -0.73 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 20.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | CNQ-20260810-000802-aa61 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-CNQ-20260810-004545-44e6 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-CNQ-20260810-004545-44e6 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-CNQ-20260810-004545-44e6 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-CNQ-20260810-004545-44e6 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | CNQ-20260810-000802-aa61 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | CNQ-20260810-000802-aa61 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $45.51 | $55.20 | +21.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 11, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.