Made on
Aug 7, 2026
Price at call
$220.00
6-month call
Neutral -4.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$210.00
Great value below
$165.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.5% to $210.00
Predicted High
$225.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$210.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 7, 2026 1:11 am
Neutral
COF trends range-bound to
$210.00
(-4.5% from $220.00)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisRisk-on tape and digital-bank narrative keep COF supported near-term, but rich valuation versus $159 fair value and $147 signal-adjusted anchor exerts gravity over months, producing a mild ride-then-fade toward the deterministic $210 endpoint.
Invalidated ifA sustained close above $235 on strong credit metrics, or a break below $195 on regime flip to risk-off, would falsify the mild-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $220.00 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 7, 2026 | — | $220.00 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 21, 2026 | $206.39–$233.61 typical range · internal point $223.50 | — | ±6.2% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and positive sentiment extend near-term drift higher |
| What actually happened: closed $212.48 on Aug 20, 2026 = -3.4% vs the call (predicted +1.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.0 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±6.2%: inside the band · S&P -1.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 7, 2026 | $200.27–$239.73 typical range · internal point $225.00 | — | ±9.0% | 5/10 | Digital-bank narrative peaks, momentum still constructive |
| 2 months | Oct 7, 2026 | $221.00 | — | +0.5% | 4/10 | Valuation gravity begins as narrative freshness fades |
| 3 months | Nov 7, 2026 | $216.00 | — | -1.8% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk and mean-reversion toward fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 7, 2026 | $213.00 | — | -3.2% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, credit-cycle caution weighs modestly |
| 5 months | Jan 7, 2027 | $211.00 | — | -4.1% | 4/10 | Value anchor pulls price toward deterministic endpoint |
| 6 months | Feb 7, 2027 | $210.00 | — | -4.5% | 5/10 | Convergence to composite fair value with residual premium |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $209.86 (-4.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] AI analysis identifies strong headwinds — multiple forces working against this stock
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $220.00 |
| Composite fair value | $159.09 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $146.84 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $159.09 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $165.00 |
| Value net score | -66 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +5 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.6% 3m 31.1% 6m 34.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.14 3m 1.03 5m 1.08 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -2.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | COF-20260807-000819-eb10 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-COF-20260807-005507-e5a4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-COF-20260807-005507-e5a4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-COF-20260807-005507-e5a4 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-COF-20260807-005507-e5a4 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | COF-20260807-000819-eb10 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | COF-20260807-000819-eb10 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $220.00 | $210.00 | -4.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.