Made on
Aug 30, 2026
Price at call
$407.88
6-month call
Bull +9.1%
Target by Mar 2027
$445.00
Great value below
$355.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+9.1% to $445.00
Predicted High
$445.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$412.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 30, 2026 1:07 pm
Bull
CPAY trends higher to
$445.00
(+9.1% from $407.88)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCPAY is a low-beta compounder in a risk-on tape with mild positive momentum and no active catalysts, sitting below composite fair value near $445. Path drifts higher toward fair value with a mid-window pause, ending between spot and the deterministic baseline as valuation gravity works but quality/value tension caps upside.
Invalidated ifA close below $380 on rising volume, or regime flip to risk-off with CPAY breaking its 6-month uptrend, would falsify the drift-higher path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $407.88 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 30, 2026 | — | $407.88 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 13, 2026 | $384.22–$431.54 typical range · internal point $412.50 | — | ±5.8% | 7/10 | Momentum and risk-on regime carry near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $408.22 on Sep 11, 2026 = +0.1% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.1 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.8%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 30, 2026 | $373.59–$442.17 typical range · internal point $418.00 | — | ±8.4% | 6/10 | Low-beta grind continues with no catalyst friction |
| 2 months | Oct 30, 2026 | $425.00 | — | +4.2% | 5/10 | Approaching fair value zone attracts modest bid |
| 3 months | Nov 30, 2026 | $430.00 | — | +5.4% | 5/10 | Value gravity toward $435 signal-adjusted anchor |
| 4 months | Dec 30, 2026 | $428.00 | — | +4.9% | 4/10 | Year-end consolidation, quality-value tension caps |
| 5 months | Jan 30, 2027 | $438.00 | — | +7.4% | 4/10 | January reset lifts toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $445.00 | — | +9.1% | 4/10 | Converges near composite fair value anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $467.76 (+14.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $407.88 |
| Composite fair value | $445.19 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $435.47 |
| DCF fair value | $622.53 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $444.53 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $355.00 |
| Value net score | -17 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +34 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.9% 3m 29.1% 6m 34.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.66 3m 0.37 5m 0.56 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 25.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | CPAY-20260830-053001-7ffd |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CPAY-20260830-055019-f51d |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CPAY-20260830-055019-f51d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CPAY-20260830-055019-f51d |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CPAY-20260830-055019-f51d |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | CPAY-20260830-053001-7ffd |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | CPAY-20260830-053001-7ffd |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $407.88 | $445.00 | +9.1% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.