Made on
Sep 4, 2026
Price at call
$476.29
6-month call
Bear -10.8%
Target by Mar 2027
$425.00
Great value below
$160.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.8% to $425.00
Predicted High
$489.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$425.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 4, 2026 1:03 pm
Bear
CRS trends lower to
$425.00
(-10.8% from $476.29)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCRS is trading at roughly 6x composite fair value but is being carried by an aerospace supply-chain narrative and risk-on regime; momentum likely holds near-term before deserved-value gravity and any skeptic pivot pull it modestly lower over months 3-6.
Invalidated ifA sustained break above $520 on strong volume or an aerospace demand shock breaking $420 support would invalidate this modest fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $476.29 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 4, 2026 | — | $476.29 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 18, 2026 | $434.60–$517.98 typical range · internal point $484.00 | — | ±8.8% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and bullish narrative extend near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $406.71 on Sep 17, 2026 = -14.6% vs the call (predicted +1.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 16.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 4, 2026 | $415.88–$536.70 typical range · internal point $489.00 | — | ±12.7% | 5/10 | Sell-side tone and momentum sustain into early October |
| 2 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $478.00 | — | +0.4% | 5/10 | Momentum stalls as no catalyst; valuation weight begins |
| 3 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $462.00 | — | -3.0% | 5/10 | Post-bubble skepticism resurfaces; profit-taking into year-end |
| 4 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $448.00 | — | -5.9% | 4/10 | January reset, high beta unwinds, gravity toward fair value |
| 5 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $438.00 | — | -8.0% | 4/10 | Earnings print risk pressures rich multiple further |
| 6 months | Mar 4, 2027 | $425.00 | — | -10.8% | 3/10 | Continued drift toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $401.23 (-15.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $476.29 |
| Composite fair value | $72.26 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $81.13 |
| DCF fair value | $74.55 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $160.00 |
| Value net score | -83 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +71 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 33.4% 3m 43.9% 6m 46.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.26 3m 1.38 5m 1.62 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 18.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | CRS-20260904-000001-9da6 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-CRS-20260904-005632-de2d |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-CRS-20260904-005632-de2d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-CRS-20260904-005632-de2d |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-CRS-20260904-005632-de2d |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | CRS-20260904-000001-9da6 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | CRS-20260904-000001-9da6 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $476.29 | $425.00 | -10.8% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.