Made on
Aug 16, 2026
Price at call
$76.68
6-month call
Bear -8.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$70.00
Great value below
$50.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.7% to $70.00
Predicted High
$76.90
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$70.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 16, 2026 12:44 am
Bear
CTVA trends lower to
$70.00
(-8.7% from $76.68)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisCTVA trades roughly 80% above composite fair value with weak value lens and negative sentiment tilt, but risk-on tape and 5/5 earnings beats support near-term stickiness. Expect a gradual drift lower as valuation gravity reasserts, accelerating if the risk-on regime cools.
Invalidated ifA break above $82 on strong volume or a Q3 beat-and-raise catalyzing new highs would invalidate the mean-reversion path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $76.68 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 16, 2026 | — | $76.68 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 30, 2026 | $71.58–$81.78 typical range · internal point $76.90 | — | ±6.6% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape, low beta, no near-term catalyst |
| 1 month | Sep 16, 2026 | $69.30–$84.06 typical range · internal point $76.10 | — | ±9.6% | 6/10 | Mild drift as momentum cools into fall |
| 2 months | Oct 16, 2026 | $74.80 | — | -2.5% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins; possible Q3 print pressure |
| 3 months | Nov 16, 2026 | $73.20 | — | -4.5% | 5/10 | Post-earnings digestion, sentiment fade risk |
| 4 months | Dec 16, 2026 | $72.00 | — | -6.1% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning; stretched multiple weighs |
| 5 months | Jan 16, 2027 | $71.00 | — | -7.4% | 4/10 | January reset, ag-cycle guidance uncertainty |
| 6 months | Feb 16, 2027 | $70.00 | — | -8.7% | 4/10 | Continued convergence toward baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $70.42 (-8.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $76.68 |
| Composite fair value | $38.70 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $42.25 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $31.43 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $50.00 |
| Value net score | -73 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +36 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 48.7% 3m 33.4% 6m 28.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.82 3m -0.17 5m -0.09 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 3.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | CTVA-20260816-001230-e602 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-CTVA-20260816-003150-89b9 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-CTVA-20260816-003150-89b9 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-CTVA-20260816-003150-89b9 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-CTVA-20260816-003150-89b9 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | CTVA-20260816-001230-e602 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | CTVA-20260816-001230-e602 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $76.68 | $70.00 | -8.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 19, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $87.30 | $81.14 | -7.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.