Made on
Aug 15, 2026
Price at call
$31.01
6-month call
Neutral -0.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$30.90
Great value below
$26.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-0.4% to $30.90
Predicted High
$30.90
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$29.20
at 3 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 15, 2026 12:41 am
Neutral
CVE trends range-bound to
$30.90
(-0.4% from $31.01)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCVE sits just above composite fair value ($30.42) with negative sentiment/value scores and rolling-over momentum after a 45% 6mo run, but a risk-on tape and low beta limit downside. Expect modest near-term drift lower toward fair value, then stabilization with mild recovery as value gravity holds.
Invalidated ifBreak above $33 on strong volume or crude collapse pushing CVE below $26 invalidates the mean-reversion-to-fair-value path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $31.01 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 15, 2026 | — | $31.01 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 29, 2026 | $28.54–$33.48 typical range · internal point $30.75 | — | ±8.0% | 6/10 | momentum fade, sentiment drag, low-beta muted moves |
| What actually happened: closed $31.59 on Aug 28, 2026 = +1.9% vs the call (predicted -0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.7 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±8.0%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 15, 2026 | $27.43–$34.59 typical range · internal point $30.30 | — | ±11.6% | 6/10 | drift toward composite fair value anchor |
| What actually happened: closed $33.27 on Sep 14, 2026 = +7.3% vs the call (predicted -2.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 9.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.6%: inside the band · S&P -2.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 15, 2026 | $29.60 | — | -4.5% | 5/10 | signal-adjusted FV gravity, no earnings catalyst |
| 3 months | Nov 15, 2026 | $29.20 | — | -5.8% | 5/10 | value lens pressure toward attractive-below-26 zone |
| 4 months | Dec 15, 2026 | $29.80 | — | -3.9% | 4/10 | year-end stabilization, quality score supports floor |
| 5 months | Jan 15, 2027 | $30.40 | — | -2.0% | 4/10 | mean reversion to fair value as sentiment resets |
| 6 months | Feb 15, 2027 | $30.90 | — | -0.4% | 3/10 | baseline convergence, mild recovery on risk-on tape |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $31.18 (+0.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $31.01 |
| Composite fair value | $30.42 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $26.34 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $30.42 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $26.00 |
| Value net score | -42 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +25 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 39.6% 3m 40.0% 6m 37.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.20 3m -0.59 5m -0.76 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 45.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | CVE-20260815-001644-0da5 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVE-20260815-003151-5e8b |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVE-20260815-003151-5e8b |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVE-20260815-003151-5e8b |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVE-20260815-003151-5e8b |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | CVE-20260815-001644-0da5 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $31.01 | $30.90 | -0.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 21, 2026 | v0.4.0 | Neutral | $28.26 | $29.10 | +3.0% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.