Made on
Aug 6, 2026
Price at call
$99.12
6-month call
Neutral +4.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$103.50
Great value below
$78.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+4.4% to $103.50
Predicted High
$103.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$96.50
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 6, 2026 1:20 am
Neutral
CVS trends range-bound to
$103.50
(+4.4% from $99.12)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCVS is caught between strong operational execution (beat and raise, 4/4 EPS beats) and narrative fatigue over a soft 2027 outlook. With no earnings catalyst in the window and a calm tape, expect mild near-term drift lower as sentiment digestion continues, then gradual recovery toward composite fair value as the DCF gap and low beta reassert.
Invalidated ifA break below $88 on volume, or a management guide-down/PBM-regulatory shock, would falsify the recovery leg.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $99.12 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 6, 2026 | — | $99.12 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 20, 2026 | $92.53–$105.71 typical range · internal point $98.40 | — | ±6.6% | 7/10 | Post-print digestion, soft 2027 narrative still weighs |
| What actually happened: closed $93.65 on Aug 19, 2026 = -5.5% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 4.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.6%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 6, 2026 | $89.57–$108.67 typical range · internal point $97.20 | — | ±9.6% | 6/10 | Sentiment drift, no catalyst, mild fade continues |
| 2 months | Oct 6, 2026 | $96.50 | — | -2.6% | 5/10 | Value gravity toward $94 composite, low-beta grind |
| 3 months | Nov 6, 2026 | $98.00 | — | -1.1% | 5/10 | Stabilization as Q3 print approaches, beat streak bid |
| 4 months | Dec 6, 2026 | $100.50 | — | +1.4% | 4/10 | Post-earnings relief if execution holds, DCF gap noticed |
| 5 months | Jan 6, 2027 | $102.00 | — | +2.9% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, defensives favored, mean reversion up |
| 6 months | Feb 6, 2027 | $103.50 | — | +4.4% | 3/10 | Slow convergence toward fair value, quality drag capped |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $100.91 (+1.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] AI analysis identifies strong headwinds — multiple forces working against this stock
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $99.12 |
| Composite fair value | $94.43 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $78.92 |
| DCF fair value | $139.87 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $28.67 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $78.00 |
| Value net score | -51 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -34 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 34.9% 3m 33.4% 6m 31.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.41 3m 0.25 5m 0.20 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 25.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | CVS-20260806-002709-6879 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVS-20260806-010428-a37c |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVS-20260806-010428-a37c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVS-20260806-010428-a37c |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVS-20260806-010428-a37c |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | CVS-20260806-002709-6879 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | CVS-20260806-002709-6879 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $99.12 | $103.50 | +4.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.