Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$55.13
6-month call
Bull +14.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$63.00
Great value below
$44.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+14.3% to $63.00
Predicted High
$63.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$55.60
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:47 am
Bull
DOCU trends higher to
$63.00
(+14.3% from $55.13)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisDOCU is a quality compounder trading between its composite fair value and signal-adjusted target, with no active catalyst but a supportive risk-on regime and consistent earnings beats. Path drifts modestly higher toward the signal-adjusted anchor, accelerating after the fiscal Q3 print lands within the window, but stays well short of the DCF given no narrative pull.
Invalidated ifA close below $48 sustained, or an EPS miss breaking the 5-quarter beat streak, would invalidate the drift-higher thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $55.13 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $55.13 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $49.35–$60.91 typical range · internal point $55.60 | — | ±10.5% | 7/10 | Low-vol drift, risk-on regime, no catalyst near term |
| What actually happened: closed $59.82 on Aug 17, 2026 = +8.5% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 7.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.5%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $46.75–$63.51 typical range · internal point $56.40 | — | ±15.2% | 6/10 | Quiet tape, mild bid from quality screens |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $57.80 | — | +4.8% | 5/10 | Positioning ahead of expected fiscal Q3 print |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $60.50 | — | +9.7% | 5/10 | Earnings beat likely extends 5-quarter streak |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $61.20 | — | +11.0% | 4/10 | Post-print consolidation near signal-adjusted anchor |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $62.00 | — | +12.5% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward $59-64 baseline range |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $63.00 | — | +14.3% | 3/10 | Slow convergence toward deterministic endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $64.30 (+16.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $55.13 |
| Composite fair value | $53.25 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $59.00 |
| DCF fair value | $87.49 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $26.78 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $44.00 |
| Value net score | -29 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +75 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 54.7% 3m 52.6% 6m 51.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.96 3m 0.03 5m 0.06 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 4.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | DOCU-20260803-171030-8416 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOCU-20260803-180236-0722 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOCU-20260803-180236-0722 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOCU-20260803-180236-0722 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOCU-20260803-180236-0722 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | DOCU-20260803-171030-8416 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | DOCU-20260803-171030-8416 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $55.13 | $63.00 | +14.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.