Made on
Sep 5, 2026
Price at call
$29.44
6-month call
Bear -21.5%
Target by Mar 2027
$23.10
Great value below
$16.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-21.5% to $23.10
Predicted High
$30.20
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$23.10
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-21.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 5, 2026 1:07 pm
Bear
DOW trends lower to
$23.10
(-21.5% from $29.44)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisDOW trades well above every fair-value anchor with negative quality and value scores, but a fragile turnaround narrative, risk-on regime, and back-to-back EPS beats offer near-term support. Expect a modest bounce into the October print, then gradual gravity toward the deterministic baseline as chemical fundamentals reassert.
Invalidated ifA clean Q3 beat with raised guidance holding price above $31, or conversely a break below $24 pre-earnings, would falsify the drift path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $29.44 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 5, 2026 | — | $29.44 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 19, 2026 | $27.28–$31.60 typical range · internal point $29.90 | — | ±7.3% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and momentum press extend near-term bid |
| 1 month | Oct 5, 2026 | $26.32–$32.56 typical range · internal point $30.20 | — | ±10.6% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, turnaround narrative firm |
| 2 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $28.10 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | Oct 21 print lands; guidance caution weighs |
| 3 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $26.80 | — | -9.0% | 5/10 | Post-earnings drift, chemical demand concerns resurface |
| 4 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $25.40 | — | -13.7% | 5/10 | Value gravity toward fair-value anchors accelerates |
| 5 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $24.20 | — | -17.8% | 5/10 | Quality and forensic drags weigh through winter |
| 6 months | Mar 5, 2027 | $23.10 | — | -21.5% | 6/10 | Converges toward deterministic baseline near 22.45 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $22.45 (-23.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 3 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
[critical] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Anchored PE skipped — peer comparison unreliable for distressed companies
-
Note
Check balance sheet assets carefully — book value may overstate real liquidation value
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $29.44 |
| Composite fair value | $15.04 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $14.47 |
| DCF fair value | $8.68 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $16.00 |
| Value net score | -80 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -58 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 37.0% 3m 36.8% 6m 43.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.65 3m -1.02 5m -1.05 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -11.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | DOW-20260905-030001-6cea |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOW-20260905-032120-1ad3 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOW-20260905-032120-1ad3 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOW-20260905-032120-1ad3 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOW-20260905-032120-1ad3 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | DOW-20260905-030001-6cea |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | DOW-20260905-030001-6cea |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $29.44 | $23.10 | -21.5% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.