Made on
Sep 2, 2026
Price at call
$221.24
6-month call
Neutral +1.9%
Target by Mar 2027
$225.50
Great value below
$180.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+1.9% to $225.50
Predicted High
$227.00
at 5 months
Predicted Low
$221.80
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 2, 2026 1:12 pm
Neutral
DRI trends range-bound to
$225.50
(+1.9% from $221.24)
by Mar 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisDRI sits near composite fair value with a quiet neutral tape and low-beta profile. Expect a mild drift higher as value gravity nudges price toward the $224-230 zone, with modest chop but no strong catalyst either direction absent an earnings surprise.
Invalidated ifBreak below $205 or above $240 on sustained volume, or a material earnings miss
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $221.24 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 2, 2026 | — | $221.24 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 16, 2026 | $208.74–$233.74 typical range · internal point $221.80 | — | ±5.7% | 7/10 | Neutral tape, low beta, minimal near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $209.12 on Sep 15, 2026 = -5.5% vs the call (predicted +0.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 5.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.7%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 2, 2026 | $203.12–$239.36 typical range · internal point $222.50 | — | ±8.2% | 6/10 | Quiet narrative, slight mean reversion to fair value |
| 2 months | Nov 2, 2026 | $223.60 | — | +1.1% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls gently toward composite anchor |
| 3 months | Dec 2, 2026 | $225.00 | — | +1.7% | 5/10 | Earnings window may lift on prior beat cadence |
| 4 months | Jan 2, 2027 | $226.20 | — | +2.2% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift, still range-bound |
| 5 months | Feb 2, 2027 | $227.00 | — | +2.6% | 4/10 | Slow convergence toward deserved value zone |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $225.50 | — | +1.9% | 4/10 | Fade near anchored fair value, no catalyst |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $224.56 (+1.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $221.24 |
| Composite fair value | $219.46 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $219.04 |
| DCF fair value | $209.41 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $337.14 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $180.00 |
| Value net score | -42 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +55 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 29.8% 3m 28.4% 6m 27.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.08 3m -0.35 5m 0.03 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 2.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | DRI-20260902-060001-5f52 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-DRI-20260902-062944-cb31 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-DRI-20260902-062944-cb31 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-DRI-20260902-062944-cb31 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-DRI-20260902-062944-cb31 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | DRI-20260902-060001-5f52 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | DRI-20260902-060001-5f52 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $221.24 | $225.50 | +1.9% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.