Made on
Aug 29, 2026
Price at call
$135.82
6-month call
Bear -5.0%
Target by Mar 2027
$129.00
Great value below
$110.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.0% to $129.00
Predicted High
$135.10
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$129.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 29, 2026 1:11 pm
Bear
DTE trends lower to
$129.00
(-5.0% from $135.82)
by Mar 2027.
decay
ThesisDTE trades well above composite fair value near $95-105 with a negative sentiment overlay and modestly weak momentum, but as a low-beta regulated utility in a calm risk-on tape, mean reversion is slow. Expect a gentle drift lower toward the deterministic anchor near $129 over six months, with mild interim wobbles rather than a sharp break.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $142 on rate relief or a constructive rate case would invalidate the drift-lower thesis; conversely a plunge below $125 would signal faster convergence.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $135.82 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 29, 2026 | — | $135.82 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 12, 2026 | $130.69–$140.95 typical range · internal point $135.10 | — | ±3.8% | 6/10 | low-beta drift, no catalyst, mild sentiment drag |
| What actually happened: closed $132.58 on Sep 11, 2026 = -2.4% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.9 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±3.8%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 29, 2026 | $128.39–$143.25 typical range · internal point $134.20 | — | ±5.5% | 6/10 | quiet tape, slow fade toward fair value |
| 2 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $133.00 | — | -2.1% | 5/10 | rate sensitivity and overvaluation weigh gently |
| 3 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $131.50 | — | -3.2% | 5/10 | value gravity pulls toward deterministic anchor |
| 4 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $130.40 | — | -4.0% | 4/10 | year-end tax positioning, defensive rotation muted |
| 5 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $129.80 | — | -4.4% | 4/10 | convergence toward baseline endpoint continues |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $129.00 | — | -5.0% | 4/10 | settles near deterministic fair-value anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $129.26 (-4.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $135.82 |
| Composite fair value | $95.30 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $104.92 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $187.69 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $110.00 |
| Value net score | -67 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +26 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 14.5% 3m 19.0% 6m 18.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.11 3m -0.25 5m -0.11 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -8.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | DTE-20260829-043001-9c26 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-DTE-20260829-045313-26ed |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-DTE-20260829-045313-26ed |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-DTE-20260829-045313-26ed |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-DTE-20260829-045313-26ed |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | DTE-20260829-043001-9c26 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | DTE-20260829-043001-9c26 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $135.82 | $129.00 | -5.0% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.