Made on
Aug 27, 2026
Price at call
$90.07
6-month call
Bear -12.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$79.00
Great value below
$62.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-12.3% to $79.00
Predicted High
$89.20
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$79.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 27, 2026 1:25 pm
Bear
DXCM trends lower to
$79.00
(-12.3% from $90.07)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisDXCM trades well above composite fair value with cracking narrative on Abbott competition, but risk-on regime and low beta cushion near-term downside. Expect a gradual drift lower toward the deterministic baseline as sentiment erodes and value gravity asserts, without a violent break given consistent earnings beats.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $95 on positive CGM share data or an Abbott stumble would invalidate; conversely a break below $78 accelerates the path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $90.07 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 27, 2026 | — | $90.07 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 10, 2026 | $82.32–$97.82 typical range · internal point $89.20 | — | ±8.6% | 6/10 | Mild drift lower, risk-on regime cushions selling |
| What actually happened: closed $83.88 on Sep 9, 2026 = -6.9% vs the call (predicted -1.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 5.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.6%: inside the band · S&P -1.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 27, 2026 | $78.83–$101.31 typical range · internal point $87.80 | — | ±12.5% | 6/10 | Sentiment weakness continues, no catalyst to reverse |
| 2 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $85.50 | — | -5.1% | 5/10 | Competitive narrative pressure builds into Q3 print |
| 3 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $83.00 | — | -7.8% | 5/10 | Earnings beat likely but guide questioned on share loss |
| 4 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $82.00 | — | -9.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, tax selling on winners |
| 5 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $80.50 | — | -10.6% | 4/10 | January reset, value gravity toward baseline |
| 6 months | Feb 27, 2027 | $79.00 | — | -12.3% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic endpoint, fair value pull |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $81.01 (-10.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $90.07 |
| Composite fair value | $40.23 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $41.96 |
| DCF fair value | $29.00 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $89.60 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $62.00 |
| Value net score | -58 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +65 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 49.1% 3m 43.2% 6m 41.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.07 3m 0.51 5m 0.51 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 21.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 26, 2026 | 1d behind | DXCM-20260826-010001-9388 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-DXCM-20260827-084420-c52e |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-DXCM-20260827-084420-c52e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-DXCM-20260827-084420-c52e |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-DXCM-20260827-084420-c52e |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | DXCM-20260827-072525-5c87 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | DXCM-20260827-072525-5c87 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $90.07 | $79.00 | -12.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $88.96 | $80.00 | -10.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.