Made on
Aug 16, 2026
Price at call
$209.70
6-month call
Neutral +0.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$211.50
Great value below
$175.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+0.9% to $211.50
Predicted High
$214.00
at 3 months
Predicted Low
$210.20
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 16, 2026 12:44 am
Neutral
EA trends range-bound to
$211.50
(+0.9% from $209.70)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisEA sits near signal-adjusted fair value with a flat deterministic baseline, low beta, and muted sentiment. Expect drift near current levels with mild upward gravity toward DCF over time, tempered by value lens caution above $175.
Invalidated ifBreak below $195 or above $225 on volume, or a major bookings guide-down
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $209.70 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 16, 2026 | — | $209.70 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 30, 2026 | $208.23–$211.17 typical range · internal point $210.20 | — | ±0.7% | 7/10 | Low vol drift, no catalyst, risk-on tape neutral |
| 1 month | Sep 16, 2026 | $207.56–$211.84 typical range · internal point $211.00 | — | ±1.0% | 6/10 | Continued quiet trade near signal-adjusted fair value |
| 2 months | Oct 16, 2026 | $212.50 | — | +1.3% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, mild upward bias to DCF |
| 3 months | Nov 16, 2026 | $214.00 | — | +2.1% | 5/10 | Earnings window; history mixed but quality supports |
| 4 months | Dec 16, 2026 | $213.00 | — | +1.6% | 4/10 | Post-print digestion, holiday slate visibility |
| 5 months | Jan 16, 2027 | $212.00 | — | +1.1% | 4/10 | Value lens gravity caps upside above 210 |
| 6 months | Feb 16, 2027 | $211.50 | — | +0.9% | 4/10 | Convergence to deterministic baseline near 210 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $210.53 (+0.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
dilution
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $209.70 |
| Composite fair value | $168.81 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $208.13 |
| DCF fair value | $221.33 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $175.00 |
| Value net score | -50 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +49 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 2.5% 3m 3.5% 6m 4.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 0.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.04 3m -0.03 5m 0.04 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 4.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | EA-20260816-001029-d2dd |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-EA-20260816-003001-5732 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-EA-20260816-003001-5732 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-EA-20260816-003001-5732 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-EA-20260816-003001-5732 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | EA-20260816-001029-d2dd |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | EA-20260816-001029-d2dd |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $209.70 | $211.50 | +0.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 21, 2026 | v0.4.0 | Bear | $209.29 | $196.50 | -6.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.