Made on
Jul 27, 2026
Price at call
$113.01
6-month call
Neutral -3.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$109.00
Great value below
$95.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-3.5% to $109.00
Predicted High
$112.60
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$109.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 27, 2026 12:58 am
Neutral
ED trends range-bound to
$109.00
(-3.5% from $113.01)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisED trades above composite fair value ($98.93) but is anchored by defensive utility characteristics, low beta, and consistent earnings beats. Expect modest mean-reversion toward the anchored-PE zone with slight drift lower as valuation gravity outweighs weak narrative momentum, though downside is cushioned by regulated-utility stability.
Invalidated ifA sharp risk-off spike driving defensive rotation into utilities above $118, or a rate-cut cycle reacceleration, would invalidate the flat-to-drift-lower path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $113.01 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 27, 2026 | — | $113.01 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 10, 2026 | $108.73–$117.29 typical range · internal point $112.60 | — | ±3.8% | 7/10 | Low-vol utility drifts, neutral regime, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $107.98 on Aug 7, 2026 = -4.5% vs the call (predicted -0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.1 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±3.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 27, 2026 | $106.81–$119.21 typical range · internal point $112.00 | — | ±5.5% | 6/10 | Mild fade toward fair value, defensive bid intact |
| What actually happened: closed $108.05 on Aug 26, 2026 = -4.4% vs the call (predicted -0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.5 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.5%: inside the band · S&P +3.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 27, 2026 | $111.20 | — | -1.6% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, mean-reversion pressure builds |
| 3 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $110.50 | — | -2.2% | 5/10 | Earnings likely beat but guide caps upside |
| 4 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $109.80 | — | -2.8% | 4/10 | Valuation gravity toward anchored-PE range continues |
| 5 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $110.50 | — | -2.2% | 4/10 | Year-end defensive rotation offers modest support |
| 6 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $109.00 | — | -3.5% | 3/10 | Drift toward composite fair value zone over horizon |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $111.65 (-1.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $113.01 |
| Composite fair value | $98.93 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $100.41 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $120.53 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $95.00 |
| Value net score | -60 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +34 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 19.7% 3m 19.0% 6m 18.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.90 3m -0.56 5m -0.37 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 9.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ED-20260727-000446-2515 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-ED-20260727-004658-cf5a |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-ED-20260727-004658-cf5a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-ED-20260727-004658-cf5a |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-ED-20260727-004658-cf5a |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 27, 2026 | freshest | ED-20260727-000446-2515 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $113.01 | $109.00 | -3.5% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.