Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$32.10
6-month call
Bear -16.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$26.80
Great value below
$24.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-16.5% to $26.80
Predicted High
$33.20
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$26.80
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-16.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:47 am
Bear
EGO trends lower to
$26.80
(-16.5% from $32.10)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisGold-bull sentiment and Skouries optionality keep EGO buoyant near term in a risk-on tape, but rich valuation versus a $23 fair value and negative quality/value signals pull the price lower over months as momentum fades.
Invalidated ifBreak above $36 on sustained gold strength, or Skouries milestone, invalidates the fade; conversely a break under $27 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $32.10 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $32.10 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $28.00–$36.20 typical range · internal point $32.90 | — | ±12.8% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and gold momentum extend near-term bid |
| What actually happened: closed $40.33 on Aug 17, 2026 = +25.6% vs the call (predicted +2.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 23.2 pp · accuracy 3/10 · typical range ±12.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $26.16–$38.04 typical range · internal point $33.20 | — | ±18.5% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists, no earnings catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $31.80 | — | -0.9% | 5/10 | High beta cools as tape consolidates |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $30.20 | — | -5.9% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins to weigh, quality drag |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $28.90 | — | -10.0% | 5/10 | Convergence toward anchored PE and baseline |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $27.60 | — | -14.0% | 4/10 | Fair-value pull dominates fading momentum |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $26.80 | — | -16.5% | 4/10 | Drift toward composite fair value near 23 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $28.80 (-10.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $32.10 |
| Composite fair value | $23.43 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $23.31 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $29.12 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $24.00 |
| Value net score | -78 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -13 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 65.2% 3m 64.1% 6m 64.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.61 3m 2.62 5m 2.31 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -25.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | EGO-20260803-170837-7599 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-EGO-20260803-180034-3ea8 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-EGO-20260803-180034-3ea8 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-EGO-20260803-180034-3ea8 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-EGO-20260803-180034-3ea8 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | EGO-20260803-170837-7599 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | EGO-20260803-170837-7599 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $32.10 | $26.80 | -16.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.