Made on
Aug 29, 2026
Price at call
$70.14
6-month call
Bull +7.6%
Target by Mar 2027
$75.50
Great value below
$60.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+7.6% to $75.50
Predicted High
$75.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$66.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 29, 2026 1:10 pm
Bull
EIX trends higher to
$75.50
(+7.6% from $70.14)
by Mar 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisEIX is caught in an active California wildfire-liability panic that dominates the near term despite deep value and a clean earnings track record. Sentiment likely deepens the drawdown into fall before value gravity and a risk-on tape allow a partial recovery, but headline overhang keeps the 6-month endpoint well below composite fair value.
Invalidated ifA major adverse wildfire liability ruling or credit downgrade breaking $60 support, or conversely a legislative backstop rallying shares above $85 quickly
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $70.14 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 29, 2026 | — | $70.14 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 12, 2026 | $65.81–$74.47 typical range · internal point $68.90 | — | ±6.2% | 7/10 | Wildfire-liability panic and negative sentiment press lower |
| What actually happened: closed $56.00 on Sep 11, 2026 = -20.2% vs the call (predicted -1.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 18.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 29, 2026 | $63.87–$76.41 typical range · internal point $67.20 | — | ±8.9% | 6/10 | Headline overhang continues, no catalyst to reverse |
| 2 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $66.00 | — | -5.9% | 5/10 | Fire-season peak keeps liability fears elevated |
| 3 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $68.50 | — | -2.3% | 5/10 | Post fire-season relief, value buyers emerge near $60s |
| 4 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $71.50 | — | +1.9% | 5/10 | Year-end tax-loss reversal and deep-value bid returns |
| 5 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $73.80 | — | +5.2% | 4/10 | Q4 earnings beat streak reinforces defensive quality |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $75.50 | — | +7.6% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value partially asserts |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $75.13 (+7.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $70.14 |
| Composite fair value | $111.08 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $119.18 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $204.59 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $60.00 |
| Value net score | -16 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -53 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 43.0% 3m 31.0% 6m 27.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.29 3m -0.41 5m -0.19 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -6.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | EIX-20260829-040002-29d6 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-EIX-20260829-043502-8515 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-EIX-20260829-043502-8515 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-EIX-20260829-043502-8515 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-EIX-20260829-043502-8515 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | EIX-20260829-040002-29d6 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $70.14 | $75.50 | +7.6% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.