Made on
Sep 18, 2026
Price at call
$176.18
6-month call
Bull +16.4%
Target by Mar 2027
$205.00
Great value below
$165.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+16.4% to $205.00
Predicted High
$205.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$165.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 18, 2026 1:22 pm
Bull
ENVA trends higher to
$205.00
(+16.4% from $176.18)
by Mar 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisSentiment is deeply negative and regime neutral, so near-term drift is lower despite deep value gap; over 6 months, quality and repeated earnings beats let price partially recover toward the bear-scenario anchor near $204, but not the DCF-implied levels.
Invalidated ifBreak below $150 on sustained volume, or failure to hold $180 after any positive earnings catalyst.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $176.18 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 18, 2026 | — | $176.18 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Oct 2, 2026 | $152.50–$199.86 typical range · internal point $170.50 | — | ±13.4% | 6/10 | Sentiment overhang and subprime stigma pressure tape |
| What actually happened: closed $171.49 on Oct 1, 2026 = -2.7% vs the call (predicted -3.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±13.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 18, 2026 | $141.86–$210.50 typical range · internal point $165.00 | — | ±19.5% | 6/10 | Risk-off drift toward value-attractive threshold |
| 2 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $172.00 | — | -2.4% | 5/10 | Stabilization as value buyers step in |
| 3 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $183.00 | — | +3.9% | 5/10 | Q4 earnings beat likely, fifth in row |
| 4 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $190.00 | — | +7.8% | 4/10 | Post-print rerating begins, sentiment eases |
| 5 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $198.00 | — | +12.4% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward bear-scenario anchor |
| 6 months | Mar 18, 2027 | $205.00 | — | +16.4% | 3/10 | Converges near bear anchor, far below DCF |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $489.00 (+177.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $176.18 |
| Composite fair value | $871.97 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $727.24 |
| DCF fair value | $1,314.95 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $165.00 |
| Value net score | -1 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +16 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 96.5% 3m 67.5% 6m 54.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 4.09 3m 1.77 5m 1.27 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 31.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 6, 2026 | 11d behind | ENVA-20260730-191647-3680 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-ENVA-20260917-165647-1503 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-ENVA-20260917-165647-1503 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-ENVA-20260917-165647-1503 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-ENVA-20260917-165647-1503 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ENVA-20260730-191647-3680 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ENVA-20260730-191647-3680 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $176.18 | $205.00 | +16.4% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.