Made on
Aug 26, 2026
Price at call
$55.30
6-month call
Neutral -0.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$55.00
Great value below
$42.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-0.5% to $55.00
Predicted High
$61.50
at 3 months
Predicted Low
$55.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 26, 2026 1:17 pm
Neutral
EQT trends range-bound to
$55.00
(-0.5% from $55.30)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisEQT rides the AI-power and LNG narrative in a risk-on tape near-term, drifting higher toward the signal-adjusted fair value, but weak quality/value fundamentals and a soft DCF cap upside and reintroduce gravity by month 4-6.
Invalidated ifA break below $50 on natural gas weakness or LNG demand disappointment invalidates the ride; sustained close above $68 invalidates the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $55.30 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 26, 2026 | — | $55.30 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 9, 2026 | $52.22–$58.38 typical range · internal point $56.80 | — | ±5.6% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and AI-power narrative extend momentum |
| What actually happened: closed $55.12 on Sep 8, 2026 = -0.3% vs the call (predicted +2.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.0 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.6%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 26, 2026 | $50.83–$59.77 typical range · internal point $58.50 | — | ±8.1% | 6/10 | LNG story keeps low-beta name bid higher |
| What actually happened: closed $50.81 on Sep 25, 2026 = -8.1% vs the call (predicted +5.8%) · direction MISS (called up, was down) · off by 13.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $60.75 | — | +9.9% | 5/10 | Sentiment peak approaches signal-adjusted fair value |
| 3 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $61.50 | — | +11.2% | 4/10 | Narrative crests, buyers thin near composite anchor |
| 4 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $59.00 | — | +6.7% | 4/10 | Value gravity reasserts as momentum cools |
| 5 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $56.50 | — | +2.2% | 4/10 | DCF drag and weak quality pull toward baseline |
| 6 months | Feb 26, 2027 | $55.00 | — | -0.5% | 5/10 | Path converges near deterministic endpoint and deserved value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $55.84 (+1.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
[critical] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $55.30 |
| Composite fair value | $71.96 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $68.28 |
| DCF fair value | $40.78 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $134.92 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $42.00 |
| Value net score | -37 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +4 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.3% 3m 28.0% 6m 28.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.29 3m -0.17 5m -0.28 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -6.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | EQT-20260826-050001-b9c3 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-EQT-20260826-052127-79d9 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-EQT-20260826-052127-79d9 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-EQT-20260826-052127-79d9 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-EQT-20260826-052127-79d9 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | EQT-20260826-050001-b9c3 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | EQT-20260826-050001-b9c3 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $55.30 | $55.00 | -0.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.