Made on
Aug 25, 2026
Price at call
$724.13
6-month call
Bear -12.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$635.00
Great value below
$380.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-12.3% to $635.00
Predicted High
$728.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$635.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 25, 2026 1:17 pm
Bear
ESLT trends lower to
$635.00
(-12.3% from $724.13)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisElbit trades far above every valuation anchor, but a durable defense-supercycle narrative and clean earnings track record keep momentum sticky near term. Over six months I expect mild drift lower as value gravity and the deterministic baseline pull the tape down, but nothing like a full mean-reversion in this window.
Invalidated ifA break above 780 on strong volume, or a break below 640 that holds, would invalidate the slow-drift-lower path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $724.13 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 25, 2026 | — | $724.13 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 8, 2026 | $647.26–$801.00 typical range · internal point $728.00 | — | ±10.6% | 7/10 | Sticky momentum, no catalyst, neutral regime |
| What actually happened: closed $703.28 on Sep 4, 2026 = -2.9% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.4 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±10.6%: inside the band · S&P +0.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 25, 2026 | $612.74–$835.52 typical range · internal point $722.00 | — | ±15.4% | 6/10 | Sideways chop near current levels |
| What actually happened: closed $739.72 on Sep 24, 2026 = +2.2% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.5 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±15.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $710.00 | — | -2.0% | 5/10 | Mild fade as narrative cools slightly |
| 3 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $695.00 | — | -4.0% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins to weigh |
| 4 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $678.00 | — | -6.4% | 4/10 | Year-end profit taking on extended name |
| 5 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $655.00 | — | -9.5% | 4/10 | Drift toward deterministic baseline continues |
| 6 months | Feb 25, 2027 | $635.00 | — | -12.3% | 4/10 | Converges near baseline endpoint zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $623.62 (-13.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $724.13 |
| Composite fair value | $185.08 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $193.32 |
| DCF fair value | $166.37 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $270.69 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $380.00 |
| Value net score | -75 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +65 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 46.2% 3m 53.3% 6m 52.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.02 3m 1.23 5m 1.00 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -2.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ESLT-20260825-073001-217d |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ESLT-20260825-074901-fcfb |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ESLT-20260825-074901-fcfb |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ESLT-20260825-074901-fcfb |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ESLT-20260825-074901-fcfb |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ESLT-20260825-073001-217d |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ESLT-20260825-073001-217d |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $724.13 | $635.00 | -12.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.