Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$444.77
6-month call
Bear -8.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$405.00
Great value below
$300.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.9% to $405.00
Predicted High
$458.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$405.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 1:35 am
Bear
ETN trends lower to
$405.00
(-8.9% from $444.77)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisEaton rides data-center electrification narrative and risk-on momentum higher near-term, but stretched valuation (>2x fair value composites) and high beta create fade risk as the window extends. Baseline sees mild drift lower; I expect a modest early push then gradual mean-reversion pressure into 2027.
Invalidated ifBreak below $400 on rising volume, or regime flip to risk-off with data-center capex guidance cuts from hyperscalers
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $444.77 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $444.77 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $398.67–$490.87 typical range · internal point $452.00 | — | ±10.4% | 7/10 | Risk-on momentum and analyst upgrades extend near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $423.65 on Aug 19, 2026 = -4.8% vs the call (predicted +1.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 6.4 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±10.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $377.97–$511.57 typical range · internal point $458.00 | — | ±15.0% | 6/10 | Data-center narrative peaks, no earnings catalyst yet |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $450.00 | — | +1.2% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, positioning tightens |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $445.00 | — | +0.1% | 5/10 | Earnings beat likely priced in, mild digestion |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $432.00 | — | -2.9% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins asserting, high beta amplifies |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $418.00 | — | -6.0% | 4/10 | Year-end rotation from crowded winners, mean reversion |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $405.00 | — | -8.9% | 4/10 | Fair value pull dominates as narrative cools |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $397.79 (-10.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $444.77 |
| Composite fair value | $206.00 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $239.69 |
| DCF fair value | $128.73 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $475.72 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $300.00 |
| Value net score | -74 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +68 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 53.9% 3m 52.0% 6m 44.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.37 3m 2.36 5m 1.83 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 23.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ETN-20260805-000621-21af |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-ETN-20260805-011617-8086 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-ETN-20260805-011617-8086 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-ETN-20260805-011617-8086 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-ETN-20260805-011617-8086 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ETN-20260805-000621-21af |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ETN-20260805-000621-21af |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $444.77 | $405.00 | -8.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 28, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.