Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$55.97
6-month call
Bear -9.2%
Target by Jan 2027
$50.80
Great value below
$42.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.2% to $50.80
Predicted High
$56.20
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$50.80
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 2:08 am
Bear
EXEL trends lower to
$50.80
(-9.2% from $55.97)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisEXEL trades above composite fair value but momentum, low beta, and consistent EPS beats support a slow drift rather than a sharp mean-reversion. Expect mild consolidation near current levels with gradual gravity toward the $50-52 deserved-value zone over 6 months, absent a catalyst.
Invalidated ifA clean break above $60 on volume or below $48 would falsify the slow-drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $55.97 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $55.97 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $52.03–$59.91 typical range · internal point $56.20 | — | ±7.0% | 6/10 | Momentum and low beta hold price near current |
| What actually happened: closed $50.61 on Aug 13, 2026 = -9.6% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $50.26–$61.68 typical range · internal point $55.50 | — | ±10.2% | 6/10 | Neutral regime, no catalyst, mild consolidation |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $54.40 | — | -2.8% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins asserting after run-up |
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $53.20 | — | -4.9% | 5/10 | Earnings likely in-window; beat priced in |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $52.00 | — | -7.1% | 4/10 | Drift toward DCF and deserved value zone |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $51.30 | — | -8.3% | 4/10 | Year-end tax considerations on winners |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $50.80 | — | -9.2% | 4/10 | Convergence toward DCF anchor near 51 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $55.28 (-1.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $55.97 |
| Composite fair value | $41.16 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $46.82 |
| DCF fair value | $50.87 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $42.00 |
| Value net score | -65 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +66 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 23.0% 3m 35.4% 6m 33.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.45 3m 0.60 5m 0.61 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 31.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | EXEL-20260730-185734-c8dd |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXEL-20260730-192443-9282 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXEL-20260730-192443-9282 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXEL-20260730-192443-9282 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXEL-20260730-192443-9282 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | EXEL-20260730-185734-c8dd |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | EXEL-20260730-185734-c8dd |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $55.97 | $50.80 | -9.2% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.