EXPD
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Expeditors International of Washington Inc.
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Made on
Sep 2, 2026
Price at call
$186.09
6-month call
Bear -10.8%
Target by Mar 2027
$166.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.8% to $166.00
Predicted High
$185.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$166.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 2, 2026 1:09 pm
Bear
EXPD trends lower to
$166.00
(-10.8% from $186.09)
by Mar 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisEXPD trades ~50% above composite fair value after a 27% rally, but with neutral regime, no earnings catalyst, and quiet-quality narrative intact, mean reversion is gradual rather than abrupt. Path drifts sideways near-term then decays toward the mid-160s as valuation gravity slowly asserts.
Invalidated ifA break above $200 on volume or sustained hold above $190 through Q4 would invalidate the fade thesis; conversely a crack below $170 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $186.09 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 2, 2026 | — | $186.09 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 16, 2026 | $177.24–$194.94 typical range · internal point $185.50 | — | ±4.8% | 7/10 | Momentum intact, no catalyst, drifts near current |
| What actually happened: closed $193.90 on Sep 15, 2026 = +4.2% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.5 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±4.8%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 2, 2026 | $173.26–$198.92 typical range · internal point $183.00 | — | ±6.9% | 6/10 | Quiet tape, mild profit-taking begins |
| What actually happened: closed $187.74 on Oct 1, 2026 = +0.9% vs the call (predicted -1.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±6.9%: inside the band · S&P +0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 2, 2026 | $178.50 | — | -4.1% | 5/10 | Valuation chatter grows, low-beta drift lower |
| 3 months | Dec 2, 2026 | $174.00 | — | -6.5% | 5/10 | Year-end rebalancing trims extended winners |
| 4 months | Jan 2, 2027 | $170.00 | — | -8.6% | 4/10 | January reset, fair-value gravity increases |
| 5 months | Feb 2, 2027 | $168.00 | — | -9.7% | 4/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, freight cycle uncertainty |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $166.00 | — | -10.8% | 4/10 | Converges toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $166.39 (-10.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $186.09 |
| Composite fair value | $116.70 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $123.96 |
| DCF fair value | $140.32 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $123.04 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | +0 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +0 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.2% 3m 23.9% 6m 26.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.81 3m 0.51 5m 0.42 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 26.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | EXPD-20260902-043001-e7f7 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXPD-20260902-055138-7a3a |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXPD-20260902-055138-7a3a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXPD-20260902-055138-7a3a |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXPD-20260902-055138-7a3a |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | EXPD-20260902-043001-e7f7 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | EXPD-20260902-043001-e7f7 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $186.09 | $166.00 | -10.8% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.