Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$14.05
6-month call
Neutral -4.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$13.40
Great value below
$11.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.6% to $13.40
Predicted High
$14.45
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$13.40
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 12:52 am
Neutral
F trends range-bound to
$13.40
(-4.6% from $14.05)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisFord sits near composite fair value with mixed signals: risk-on tape and tariff-nationalism support near-term, but weak quality/value net-scores and a lukewarm turnaround narrative cap upside. Path drifts modestly higher into fall on regime tailwind, then fades toward composite fair value as fundamentals reassert.
Invalidated ifBreak below $12.50 on quality miss, or sustained close above $15.75 signals thesis broken.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $14.05 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $14.05 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $12.97–$15.13 typical range · internal point $14.20 | — | ±7.7% | 7/10 | Risk-on regime and tariff tailwind extend recent drift |
| What actually happened: closed $13.84 on Sep 1, 2026 = -1.5% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±7.7%: inside the band · S&P -0.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $12.49–$15.61 typical range · internal point $14.35 | — | ±11.1% | 6/10 | Momentum holds absent catalyst, no earnings pressure |
| What actually happened: closed $13.61 on Sep 17, 2026 = -3.1% vs the call (predicted +2.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.3 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±11.1%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $14.45 | — | +2.8% | 5/10 | Peak of risk-on ride before Q3 print anticipation |
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $14.10 | — | +0.4% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings noise, value gravity begins asserting |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $13.80 | — | -1.8% | 5/10 | Year-end tax-loss and turnaround fatigue weigh |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $13.50 | — | -3.9% | 4/10 | Drift toward composite fair value anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $13.40 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | Settles near fair value; quality drag persists |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $14.37 (+2.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Value is primarily income-based — dividend sustainability is the key risk
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $14.05 |
| Composite fair value | $13.20 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $12.49 |
| DCF fair value | $19.75 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $11.50 |
| Value net score | -50 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -19 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 28.3% 3m 38.5% 6m 42.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.57 3m 0.97 5m 1.22 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -0.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | F-20260818-001846-a636 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-F-20260818-003909-3022 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-F-20260818-003909-3022 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-F-20260818-003909-3022 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-F-20260818-003909-3022 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | F-20260818-001846-a636 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | F-20260818-001846-a636 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $14.05 | $13.40 | -4.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 20, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.