Made on
Jul 20, 2026
Price at call
$195.54
6-month call
Bear -5.4%
Target by Jan 2027
$185.00
Great value below
$165.00
Model
v0.4.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.4% to $185.00
Predicted High
$198.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$185.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 20, 2026 3:46 am
Bear
FANG trends lower to
$185.00
(-5.4% from $195.54)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisFANG trades slightly above composite fair value with mixed signals: bullish oil-tailwind sentiment and analyst consensus support near-term levels, but negative value and quality lenses plus a signal-adjusted FV below spot create gravitational drag over months. Expect a modest early ride on momentum and oil headlines, then a slow fade toward the $185-190 anchor zone.
Invalidated ifA sustained break above $210 on oil spike or below $170 on Permian production disappointment would falsify this mean-reverting path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $195.54 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 20, 2026 | — | $195.54 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 3, 2026 | $181.41–$209.67 typical range · internal point $197.20 | — | ±7.2% | 6/10 | Oil headline momentum and Buy consensus support |
| What actually happened: closed $202.95 on Jul 31, 2026 = +3.8% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.9 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±7.2%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 20, 2026 | $175.07–$216.01 typical range · internal point $198.50 | — | ±10.5% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists into August |
| What actually happened: closed $208.55 on Aug 19, 2026 = +6.7% vs the call (predicted +1.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 5.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.5%: inside the band · S&P +3.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 20, 2026 | $194.00 | — | -0.8% | 5/10 | Q2 earnings digestion, value gravity begins |
| 3 months | Oct 20, 2026 | $190.50 | — | -2.6% | 5/10 | Drift toward composite fair value anchor |
| 4 months | Nov 20, 2026 | $188.00 | — | -3.9% | 4/10 | Quality lens drag, neutral regime persists |
| 5 months | Dec 20, 2026 | $186.50 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | Signal-adjusted FV pulls price lower |
| 6 months | Jan 20, 2027 | $185.00 | — | -5.4% | 3/10 | Convergence toward deserved value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $186.17 (-4.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.4.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $195.54 |
| Composite fair value | $191.18 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $183.53 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $199.43 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $165.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -55 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.7% 3m 36.3% 6m 33.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.08 3m -0.74 5m -0.72 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 27.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.4.0
#d5854b4b2216 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | FANG-20260720-030001-4ea7 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-FANG-20260720-033312-1070 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-FANG-20260720-033312-1070 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-FANG-20260720-033312-1070 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-FANG-20260720-033312-1070 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | FANG-20260720-030001-4ea7 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | v0.4.0 | Bear | $195.54 | $185.00 | -5.4% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.4.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.