Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$63.92
6-month call
Bear -9.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$57.90
Great value below
$40.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.4% to $57.90
Predicted High
$64.90
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$57.90
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 1:29 am
Bear
FER trends lower to
$57.90
(-9.4% from $63.92)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisFER trades well above every fair-value anchor (composite $28.66, anchored-PE $20.80), but a risk-on tape, low-beta infrastructure bid, and platform-monopoly narrative delay gravity. Expect near-term drift slightly higher on sentiment, then a slow grind lower as valuation reasserts, with the baseline endpoint near $58 as a reasonable landing zone.
Invalidated ifA break above $70 on volume, or a sudden drop below $58 within 4 weeks, would falsify this measured fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $63.92 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $63.92 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $60.71–$67.13 typical range · internal point $64.60 | — | ±5.0% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and low-beta bid support near-term drift |
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $59.27–$68.57 typical range · internal point $64.90 | — | ±7.3% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists absent catalysts |
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $63.40 | — | -0.8% | 5/10 | Momentum stalls as valuation concerns resurface |
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $61.80 | — | -3.3% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward anchored fair range |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $60.20 | — | -5.8% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims extended infrastructure names |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $58.80 | — | -8.0% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $57.90 | — | -9.4% | 4/10 | Fade continues; still well above composite fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $57.99 (-9.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $63.92 |
| Composite fair value | $28.66 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $28.98 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $20.80 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $40.00 |
| Value net score | -75 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +33 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 22.1% 3m 25.2% 6m 27.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.64 3m 0.81 5m 1.10 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -12.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | FER-20260818-002146-c728 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-FER-20260818-004107-a958 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-FER-20260818-004107-a958 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-FER-20260818-004107-a958 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-FER-20260818-004107-a958 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | FER-20260818-002146-c728 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | FER-20260818-002146-c728 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $63.92 | $57.90 | -9.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.