Made on
Aug 21, 2026
Price at call
$266.62
6-month call
Bull +11.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$296.00
Great value below
$220.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+11.0% to $296.00
Predicted High
$296.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$270.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 21, 2026 1:04 pm
Bull
FNV trends higher to
$296.00
(+11.0% from $266.62)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisGold tailwind and constructive analyst tone lift FNV modestly toward composite fair value, with earnings on Nov 1 providing a mid-path catalyst. Low beta and royalty model dampen swings; drift up beats mean reversion given momentum and sentiment turn.
Invalidated ifGold pullback below key support or FNV break under $245 would falsify the constructive drift
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $266.62 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 21, 2026 | — | $266.62 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 4, 2026 | $244.71–$288.53 typical range · internal point $270.50 | — | ±8.2% | 7/10 | Sentiment tailwind and gold bid extend near-term momentum |
| 1 month | Sep 21, 2026 | $234.87–$298.37 typical range · internal point $274.00 | — | ±11.9% | 6/10 | Analyst upgrades cycle, low-beta drift higher continues |
| 2 months | Oct 21, 2026 | $278.50 | — | +4.5% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, gold-linked names in favor |
| 3 months | Nov 21, 2026 | $285.00 | — | +6.9% | 5/10 | Nov 1 earnings beat likely given 3 of 4 track record |
| 4 months | Dec 21, 2026 | $290.00 | — | +8.8% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift toward composite fair value $301 |
| 5 months | Jan 21, 2027 | $293.00 | — | +9.9% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulling toward $301 anchor mid-winter |
| 6 months | Feb 21, 2027 | $296.00 | — | +11.0% | 4/10 | Approaches composite fair value; upside slows into resistance |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $316.88 (+18.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $266.62 |
| Composite fair value | $301.50 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $433.58 |
| DCF fair value | $403.18 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $220.39 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $220.00 |
| Value net score | +15 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +79 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 39.3% 3m 41.3% 6m 39.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.09 3m 0.97 5m 1.09 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 1.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | FNV-20260820-200722-636f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-FNV-20260820-202823-df09 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-FNV-20260820-202823-df09 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-FNV-20260820-202823-df09 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-FNV-20260820-202823-df09 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | FNV-20260820-200722-636f |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | FNV-20260820-200722-636f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $266.62 | $296.00 | +11.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 24, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $214.22 | $182.00 | -15.0% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.