Made on
Aug 27, 2026
Price at call
$76.19
6-month call
Bear -9.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$69.00
Great value below
$55.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.4% to $69.00
Predicted High
$77.80
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$69.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 27, 2026 1:23 pm
Bear
FTI trends lower to
$69.00
(-9.4% from $76.19)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisFTI rides a calm risk-on tape and subsea capex narrative near-term, but rich valuation versus fair value near $62 and DCF near $41 drags the path lower over months as sentiment fades and value gravity asserts.
Invalidated ifA break above $82 on subsea order momentum, or below $65 on regime flip, would falsify.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $76.19 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 27, 2026 | — | $76.19 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 10, 2026 | $70.88–$81.50 typical range · internal point $77.20 | — | ±7.0% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and subsea narrative extend drift higher |
| What actually happened: closed $77.81 on Sep 9, 2026 = +2.1% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.0%: inside the band · S&P -1.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 27, 2026 | $68.49–$83.89 typical range · internal point $77.80 | — | ±10.1% | 6/10 | Momentum persists absent catalyst, no earnings print |
| 2 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $76.00 | — | -0.2% | 5/10 | Sentiment flattens as valuation stretch noticed |
| 3 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $73.50 | — | -3.5% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward composite fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $71.80 | — | -5.8% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, quality-value gap weighs |
| 5 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $70.00 | — | -8.1% | 4/10 | Drift toward deserved value continues, no fresh catalyst |
| 6 months | Feb 27, 2027 | $69.00 | — | -9.4% | 4/10 | Convergence toward signal-adjusted fair value near 63 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $72.39 (-5.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $76.19 |
| Composite fair value | $61.58 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $63.02 |
| DCF fair value | $40.97 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $140.26 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $55.00 |
| Value net score | -77 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +42 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 36.6% 3m 35.0% 6m 34.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.78 3m 0.04 5m -0.02 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 13.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | FTI-20260827-033001-40c1 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-FTI-20260827-063354-b7ef |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-FTI-20260827-063354-b7ef |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-FTI-20260827-063354-b7ef |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ext-FTI-20260827-063354-b7ef |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | FTI-20260827-033001-40c1 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | FTI-20260827-033001-40c1 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $76.19 | $69.00 | -9.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.