Made on
Aug 7, 2026
Price at call
$157.18
6-month call
Bear -12.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$138.00
Great value below
$105.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-12.2% to $138.00
Predicted High
$162.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$138.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 7, 2026 1:06 am
Bear
GLW trends lower to
$138.00
(-12.2% from $157.18)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisGLW is extended far above any reasonable fair value but riding a powerful AI-infrastructure narrative in a risk-on tape with no near-term earnings catalyst to break the story. Momentum likely carries it modestly higher over the next few weeks, then gravity and beta-driven volatility begin dragging it back as the narrative matures and value convergence exerts pressure into year-end and beyond.
Invalidated ifA close above $180 on sustained AI-capex upgrades, or a break below $135 signaling narrative rupture, would invalidate this measured fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $157.18 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 7, 2026 | — | $157.18 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 21, 2026 | $126.31–$188.05 typical range · internal point $160.50 | — | ±19.6% | 6/10 | Momentum and risk-on tape extend the rally briefly |
| What actually happened: closed $151.45 on Aug 20, 2026 = -3.7% vs the call (predicted +2.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.8 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±19.6%: inside the band · S&P -1.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 7, 2026 | $112.44–$201.92 typical range · internal point $162.00 | — | ±28.5% | 5/10 | Narrative peaks; analyst upgrades still supportive |
| 2 months | Oct 7, 2026 | $158.00 | — | +0.5% | 4/10 | High beta bites as regime cools, no catalyst |
| 3 months | Nov 7, 2026 | $152.00 | — | -3.3% | 4/10 | Earnings print risk; froth begins to unwind |
| 4 months | Dec 7, 2026 | $146.00 | — | -7.1% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking on extended AI winners |
| 5 months | Jan 7, 2027 | $142.00 | — | -9.7% | 3/10 | Value gravity asserts against $20 fair value anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 7, 2027 | $138.00 | — | -12.2% | 3/10 | Continued mean reversion toward deterministic baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $132.65 (-15.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $157.18 |
| Composite fair value | $20.41 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $27.19 |
| DCF fair value | $24.06 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $105.00 |
| Value net score | -73 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +45 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 88.6% 3m 98.6% 6m 87.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 6.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 3.67 3m 3.85 5m 3.25 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 43.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | GLW-20260807-000819-3f7f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-GLW-20260807-005507-02e8 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-GLW-20260807-005507-02e8 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-GLW-20260807-005507-02e8 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-GLW-20260807-005507-02e8 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | GLW-20260807-000819-3f7f |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | GLW-20260807-000819-3f7f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.