Made on
Sep 3, 2026
Price at call
$92.13
6-month call
Bull +30.3%
Target by Mar 2027
$120.00
Great value below
$82.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+30.3% to $120.00
Predicted High
$120.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$89.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 3, 2026 1:03 pm
Bull
GPN trends higher to
$120.00
(+30.3% from $92.13)
by Mar 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisGPN screens deeply undervalued on composite metrics but sentiment is heavily negative after a 24% drawdown, creating a fallen-angel setup. Near-term drift stays weak as no catalyst is scheduled, then value gravity partially reasserts as a Q4 earnings print likely arrives inside the window and beat history reasserts.
Invalidated ifA break below $82 support or a Q4 miss/guide-down would falsify the mean-reversion path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $92.13 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 3, 2026 | — | $92.13 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 17, 2026 | $84.70–$99.56 typical range · internal point $90.50 | — | ±8.1% | 6/10 | Negative sentiment and momentum continue pressing near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $86.49 on Sep 16, 2026 = -6.1% vs the call (predicted -1.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 4.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.1%: inside the band · S&P -2.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 3, 2026 | $81.36–$102.90 typical range · internal point $89.00 | — | ±11.7% | 5/10 | Drift lower absent catalyst, tax-loss overhang building |
| What actually happened: closed $78.35 on Oct 2, 2026 = -15.0% vs the call (predicted -3.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 11.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.7%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 3, 2026 | $93.50 | — | +1.5% | 4/10 | Stabilization near value zone, Q3 print approaches |
| 3 months | Dec 3, 2026 | $102.00 | — | +10.7% | 4/10 | Earnings beat likely, rerating begins from oversold base |
| 4 months | Jan 3, 2027 | $108.00 | — | +17.2% | 4/10 | Post-print follow-through as value buyers step in |
| 5 months | Feb 3, 2027 | $115.00 | — | +24.8% | 3/10 | Gap-to-fair-value narrative gains traction, multiple expands |
| 6 months | Mar 3, 2027 | $120.00 | — | +30.3% | 3/10 | Partial convergence toward signal-adjusted fair value anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $162.33 (+76.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $92.13 |
| Composite fair value | $247.83 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $180.73 |
| DCF fair value | $361.40 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $82.00 |
| Value net score | -9 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +2 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.8% 3m 40.5% 6m 40.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.71 3m 1.06 5m 1.03 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 19.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | GPN-20260903-010001-0f75 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-GPN-20260903-012319-e846 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-GPN-20260903-012319-e846 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-GPN-20260903-012319-e846 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-GPN-20260903-012319-e846 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | GPN-20260903-010001-0f75 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | GPN-20260903-010001-0f75 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $92.13 | $120.00 | +30.3% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.