Made on
Aug 28, 2026
Price at call
$36.14
6-month call
Bull +6.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$38.50
Great value below
$29.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+6.5% to $38.50
Predicted High
$38.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$35.80
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 28, 2026 1:05 pm
Bull
HAL trends higher to
$38.50
(+6.5% from $36.14)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisHAL sits mildly below composite fair value ($42.97) with a supportive risk-on tape and a fresh BP deepwater catalyst, but sentiment is net negative and value lens flags it not-yet-cheap. Expect a modest early drift higher on momentum, some chop into year-end, then gradual convergence toward the DCF/composite blend.
Invalidated ifA break below $32 on rising volume or a crude collapse would invalidate the recovery path; conversely a sustained move above $42 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $36.14 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 28, 2026 | — | $36.14 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 11, 2026 | $33.59–$38.69 typical range · internal point $36.60 | — | ±7.1% | 7/10 | Risk-on regime and BP win support mild drift up |
| What actually happened: closed $36.07 on Sep 10, 2026 = -0.2% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.1%: inside the band · S&P -1.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 28, 2026 | $32.44–$39.84 typical range · internal point $36.90 | — | ±10.2% | 6/10 | Momentum continues, no catalyst but tape helpful |
| 2 months | Oct 28, 2026 | $35.80 | — | -0.9% | 5/10 | Sentiment drag and value gravity toward signal-adjusted |
| 3 months | Nov 28, 2026 | $36.20 | — | +0.2% | 4/10 | Chop around fair-value midpoint, quiet narrative |
| 4 months | Dec 28, 2026 | $37.20 | — | +2.9% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, energy services rotation |
| 5 months | Jan 28, 2027 | $38.10 | — | +5.4% | 4/10 | Drift toward DCF as Q4 print approaches |
| 6 months | Feb 28, 2027 | $38.50 | — | +6.5% | 3/10 | Convergence toward composite fair-value blend |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $37.86 (+4.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] AI analysis identifies strong headwinds — multiple forces working against this stock
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $36.14 |
| Composite fair value | $42.97 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $34.91 |
| DCF fair value | $37.99 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $66.47 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $29.00 |
| Value net score | -41 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +4 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 34.0% 3m 35.5% 6m 33.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.27 3m -0.01 5m -0.25 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -0.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | HAL-20260828-013001-4600 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-HAL-20260828-015151-4e7d |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-HAL-20260828-015151-4e7d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-HAL-20260828-015151-4e7d |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-HAL-20260828-015151-4e7d |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | HAL-20260828-013001-4600 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | HAL-20260828-013001-4600 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $36.14 | $38.50 | +6.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.