HBAN
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Huntington Bancshares Incorporated Common Stock
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Made on
Sep 3, 2026
Price at call
$17.01
6-month call
Neutral +1.7%
Target by Mar 2027
$17.30
Great value below
$14.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+1.7% to $17.30
Predicted High
$17.60
at 3 months
Predicted Low
$17.05
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 3, 2026 1:02 pm
Neutral
HBAN trends range-bound to
$17.30
(+1.7% from $17.01)
by Mar 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisHBAN sits essentially at fair value with a neutral tape and low beta, so drift dominates until the Oct 21 earnings print inside the m2 window offers the one real catalyst; with 3-of-4 beats, mild upward bias post-print, then value gravity holds it near the mid-$17s.
Invalidated ifA Q3 earnings miss or NIM guide-down would break the path lower toward the $14.50 value zone; a hawkish rate shock or regime flip to risk-off invalidates the drift.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $17.01 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 3, 2026 | — | $17.01 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 17, 2026 | $16.18–$17.84 typical range · internal point $17.05 | — | ±4.9% | 7/10 | Low-vol drift near fair value, neutral tape |
| What actually happened: closed $15.82 on Sep 16, 2026 = -7.0% vs the call (predicted +0.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±4.9%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -2.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 3, 2026 | $15.81–$18.21 typical range · internal point $17.15 | — | ±7.1% | 6/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, mild positive seasonality |
| What actually happened: closed $15.33 on Oct 2, 2026 = -9.9% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.3% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 3, 2026 | $17.55 | — | +3.2% | 4/10 | Oct 21 print inside window, beat bias lifts |
| 3 months | Dec 3, 2026 | $17.60 | — | +3.5% | 5/10 | Post-earnings digestion, deserved value pull |
| 4 months | Jan 3, 2027 | $17.40 | — | +2.3% | 4/10 | January tape, sector rotation risk, no catalyst |
| 5 months | Feb 3, 2027 | $17.25 | — | +1.4% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Mar 3, 2027 | $17.30 | — | +1.7% | 3/10 | Converges to anchored fair value, low conviction far out |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $17.13 (+0.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $17.01 |
| Composite fair value | $17.03 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $18.34 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $17.03 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $14.50 |
| Value net score | -38 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +9 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 19.0% 3m 24.5% 6m 24.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.74 3m 0.60 5m 0.69 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 0.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | HBAN-20260903-003002-331e |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-HBAN-20260903-005528-09fc |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-HBAN-20260903-005528-09fc |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-HBAN-20260903-005528-09fc |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-HBAN-20260903-005528-09fc |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | HBAN-20260903-003002-331e |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 3, 2026 | freshest | HBAN-20260903-003002-331e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $17.01 | $17.30 | +1.7% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.