Made on
Aug 30, 2026
Price at call
$30.52
6-month call
Bull +17.3%
Target by Mar 2027
$35.80
Great value below
$26.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+17.3% to $35.80
Predicted High
$35.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$28.20
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 30, 2026 1:04 pm
Bull
HPQ trends higher to
$35.80
(+17.3% from $30.52)
by Mar 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisHPQ has ripped 60% in six months into a fresh margin-pressure narrative and negative sentiment, likely triggering a near-term fade before value gravity ($42-48 fair value range) slowly reasserts. Expect early weakness then gradual recovery toward the deterministic $36 endpoint as the negative story ages out.
Invalidated ifA close above $34 in the first month or below $25 in the first two months would falsify this path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $30.52 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 30, 2026 | — | $30.52 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 13, 2026 | $27.53–$33.51 typical range · internal point $29.60 | — | ±9.8% | 7/10 | fresh negative sentiment weighs on extended tape |
| What actually happened: closed $35.48 on Sep 11, 2026 = +16.3% vs the call (predicted -3.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 19.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 30, 2026 | $26.19–$34.85 typical range · internal point $28.80 | — | ±14.2% | 6/10 | margin narrative digestion, momentum unwinds |
| What actually happened: closed $30.73 on Sep 29, 2026 = +0.7% vs the call (predicted -5.6%) · direction MISS (called down, was flat) · off by 6.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±14.2%: inside the band · S&P -0.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 30, 2026 | $28.20 | — | -7.6% | 5/10 | sentiment trough, value buyers begin nibbling near 26 |
| 3 months | Nov 30, 2026 | $29.50 | — | -3.3% | 5/10 | stabilization as narrative ages, no catalyst |
| 4 months | Dec 30, 2026 | $31.50 | — | +3.2% | 4/10 | year-end mean reversion, value gravity engages |
| 5 months | Jan 30, 2027 | $33.80 | — | +10.7% | 4/10 | drift toward fair value, risk-on regime persists |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $35.80 | — | +17.3% | 4/10 | convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $36.29 (+18.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $30.52 |
| Composite fair value | $48.90 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $42.91 |
| DCF fair value | $45.70 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $79.70 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $26.00 |
| Value net score | -9 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +1 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 50.1% 3m 49.1% 6m 49.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.30 3m 0.64 5m 0.51 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 60.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | HPQ-20260830-040001-f893 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-HPQ-20260830-042938-c5b6 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-HPQ-20260830-042938-c5b6 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-HPQ-20260830-042938-c5b6 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-HPQ-20260830-042938-c5b6 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | HPQ-20260830-040001-f893 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | HPQ-20260830-040001-f893 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $30.52 | $35.80 | +17.3% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.