Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$100.99
6-month call
Bear -9.9%
Target by Jan 2027
$91.00
Great value below
$78.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.9% to $91.00
Predicted High
$101.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$91.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 2:09 am
Bear
HQY trends lower to
$91.00
(-9.9% from $100.99)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisHQY trades ~30% above composite fair value with a stretched anchored-PE, but a low-beta HSA utility with 5/5 EPS beats and neutral regime lacks a near-term catalyst to force reversion. Expect mild drift lower toward the $80s value zone over 6 months, with sentiment supporting prices early before value gravity slowly reasserts.
Invalidated ifA break above $110 on volume or below $88 near-term would falsify the slow-fade thesis
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $100.99 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $100.99 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $94.51–$107.47 typical range · internal point $101.50 | — | ±6.4% | 7/10 | Low-beta drift, no catalyst, neutral tape holds price |
| What actually happened: closed $105.59 on Aug 13, 2026 = +4.6% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.1 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±6.4%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $91.60–$110.38 typical range · internal point $100.20 | — | ±9.3% | 6/10 | Slight fade as momentum cools without news |
| What actually happened: closed $96.37 on Aug 28, 2026 = -4.6% vs the call (predicted -0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.8 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±9.3%: inside the band · S&P +3.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $98.00 | — | -3.0% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward fair range |
| What actually happened: closed $88.46 on Sep 30, 2026 = -12.4% vs the call (predicted -3.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 9.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +2.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $96.50 | — | -4.4% | 5/10 | Earnings window may print; beat likely priced in |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $94.00 | — | -6.9% | 4/10 | Continued mean reversion toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $92.50 | — | -8.4% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, tax selling on winners |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $91.00 | — | -9.9% | 3/10 | Slow convergence toward signal-adjusted $81 anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $101.62 (+0.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $100.99 |
| Composite fair value | $76.80 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $81.64 |
| DCF fair value | $107.33 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $65.98 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $78.00 |
| Value net score | -67 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +67 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.4% 3m 32.2% 6m 35.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.76 3m -0.30 5m 0.27 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 21.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | HQY-20260730-185943-e8ce |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-HQY-20260730-192304-6b9f |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-HQY-20260730-192304-6b9f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-HQY-20260730-192304-6b9f |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-HQY-20260730-192304-6b9f |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | HQY-20260730-185943-e8ce |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | HQY-20260730-185943-e8ce |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $100.99 | $91.00 | -9.9% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.