Made on
Sep 1, 2026
Price at call
$442.85
6-month call
Bear -7.0%
Target by Mar 2027
$412.00
Great value below
$300.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.0% to $412.00
Predicted High
$448.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$412.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 1, 2026 1:03 pm
Bear
HUBB trends lower to
$412.00
(-7.0% from $442.85)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisHUBB trades roughly 55% above composite fair value with a strong forensic/quality mix but stretched valuation and no near-term catalyst. In a risk-on tape with sentiment mildly positive and no earnings print, near-term drift is modestly firm, but value gravity and the recent 6-month drawdown suggest a slow fade toward the deterministic endpoint.
Invalidated ifA decisive close above $470 on volume, or a break below $400 well before m4, would invalidate this glide path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $442.85 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 1, 2026 | — | $442.85 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 15, 2026 | $410.02–$475.68 typical range · internal point $446.00 | — | ±7.4% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime, no catalyst, mild positive drift |
| What actually happened: closed $442.38 on Sep 14, 2026 = -0.1% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.4%: inside the band · S&P -0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 1, 2026 | $395.28–$490.42 typical range · internal point $448.50 | — | ±10.7% | 5/10 | Momentum lingers, sentiment premium intact |
| What actually happened: closed $453.60 on Sep 30, 2026 = +2.4% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±10.7%: inside the band · S&P +0.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $440.00 | — | -0.6% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins pressing, tape cools |
| 3 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $432.00 | — | -2.4% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims extended names |
| 4 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $425.00 | — | -4.0% | 4/10 | January reset, quality bid softens |
| 5 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $418.00 | — | -5.6% | 4/10 | Pre-earnings drift toward fair value zone |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $412.00 | — | -7.0% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic endpoint as premium erodes |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $413.59 (-6.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $442.85 |
| Composite fair value | $232.26 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $247.19 |
| DCF fair value | $279.00 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $300.00 |
| Value net score | -73 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +67 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.2% 3m 37.2% 6m 36.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.74 3m 1.20 5m 1.01 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -12.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | HUBB-20260901-013001-196e |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-HUBB-20260901-015031-6545 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-HUBB-20260901-015031-6545 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-HUBB-20260901-015031-6545 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-HUBB-20260901-015031-6545 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | HUBB-20260901-013001-196e |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 1, 2026 | freshest | HUBB-20260901-013001-196e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $442.85 | $412.00 | -7.0% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.